Saturday, March 19, 2011

Updated Tourney Odds



Updated after last night’s games. Chances shown are chances to win that particular round. You’ll notice that some teams chances actually shrunk. That’s due to the number of rounds, and the wide variety in quality of teams, and possibly due to some teams winning, yet under performing. After the results, those teams now have a higher chance of a harder road to the championship. This is likely the last round where this will happen.

Duke now has a better than 50/50 chance of making the Final Four.

  Round 2 Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four Championship
Duke 92.82% 61.45% 51.19% 36.52% 24.97%
Pittsburgh 82.51% 55.29% 39.69% 25.55% 13.87%
Kansas 59.96% 48.88% 31.27% 15.08% 8.50%
Texas 74.40% 31.91% 24.06% 14.54% 8.44%
Purdue 85.92% 62.71% 34.28% 14.71% 7.52%
Syracuse 69.31% 41.20% 24.28% 13.09% 6.23%
Ohio State 75.33% 41.55% 21.97% 10.98% 4.71%
Wisconsin 68.85% 30.77% 18.75% 9.82% 4.23%
BYU 67.58% 47.20% 20.67% 10.30% 4.10%
Illinois 40.04% 29.47% 15.91% 6.31% 2.98%
Washington 53.56% 25.67% 12.96% 6.05% 2.40%
West Virginia 50.28% 26.11% 12.54% 5.66% 2.10%
Kentucky 49.72% 25.81% 12.47% 5.62% 2.07%
North Carolina 46.44% 20.40% 9.21% 3.90% 1.38%
San Diego St 58.08% 32.05% 8.10% 3.09% 1.15%
Florida 74.15% 31.25% 10.00% 3.65% 1.03%
Connecticut 62.48% 32.98% 7.23% 2.60% 0.91%
Notre Dame 55.50% 19.61% 7.06% 1.92% 0.64%
Marquette 30.69% 12.73% 4.77% 1.64% 0.43%
Gonzaga 32.42% 16.77% 4.73% 1.51% 0.36%
Temple 41.92% 19.38% 3.56% 1.08% 0.32%
Arizona 25.60% 5.38% 2.68% 0.94% 0.32%
Richmond 61.98% 15.07% 4.97% 1.09% 0.30%
Florida St 44.50% 12.91% 3.88% 0.84% 0.23%
Kansas St 31.15% 7.80% 3.20% 1.00% 0.23%
Cincinnati 37.52% 15.59% 2.79% 0.80% 0.23%
Butler 17.49% 6.13% 2.40% 0.70% 0.15%
George Mason 24.67% 6.54% 1.81% 0.47% 0.09%
Morehead St 38.02% 6.58% 1.63% 0.26% 0.05%
VCU 14.08% 4.77% 1.00% 0.14% 0.03%
Michigan 7.18% 1.26% 0.39% 0.07% 0.01%
UCLA 25.85% 4.78% 0.55% 0.07% 0.01%

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