07 November, 2010

College Football Week 10

Congratulations to Miami (FL), North Carolina, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Penn State, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP, Navy, Air Force, Florida, and Fresno State, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 47. There are 35 bowls this season, so we still need 23 teams.

Condolences to North Texas, Rice, Colorado State, New Mexico State, Wake Forest, Buffalo, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-Lafayette, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 22.

There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.


Computer top 5:

  1. Oregon
  2. TCU
  3. Boise State
  4. Auburn
  5. Stanford

The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.

In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:

  1. Auburn
  2. TCU
  3. Oregon
  4. LSU
  5. Boise State

I said last week that Win puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule (SOS). I have modified it starting this week to take that into consideration. I still think I can do some more work here, but I’m happier with the results.

MLE (maximum likelihood estimate):

  1. Oregon
  2. TCU
  3. Boise State
  4. Stanford
  5. Alabama

Oregon has now passed 1945 Army in MLE and is now #1 all time. In addition, Boise State has surged to #4 all time. I still expect them to fall back to earth a bit before the end of the season, but I could be wrong. It’s near certain at this point that if Oregon and TCU were to play for the title, the winner would be #1 all time in MLE.