02 April, 2011

Every Game Counts

No, that’s the motto for NCAA football.

Well, it’s true for computer ratings of any sport. Even one with almost 6,000 games like NCAA basketball. In case you haven’t noticed (and judging by the TV ratings numbers, you haven’t), there were a few basketball games this week, in the NIT, CBI, and CIT tournaments.

Well, believe it or not, the outcomes of those games have affected the odd for our Four Finalists winning the championship, albeit slightly.

Team Final Four Championship












The folks in Indy will no doubt be happy to see that Butler is now the second favorite. Barely. However, this is as high as they will go. They will not be favored against either Kentucky or Connecticut. Their second favorite status is due primarily to how heavy UK is favored over UConn. Should the Huskies pull off the upset, they will leapfrog Butler for the top spot in the title game.

Assuming the Bulldogs win, that is. Which is not guaranteed. If I had to bet, I’d take VCU. No team has played better thus far in the tourney. But, they didn’t look like this in November, December, January, or February. Which team will show up this weekend? Your guess is as good as mine.

01 April, 2011

America Needs More Changing

The first presidential cycle ad for 2012. Kind of an April Fool’s joke, but mostly some lighthearted truth, just from an unexpected source.


Yes, it’s from the NRSC. Bravo. But you’re still going to have to do better to get some of my money. And don’t even bother calling me until primary season is over.

31 March, 2011

Bill Whittle–Eat The Rich!

Bill Whittle is great. Worth watching all of his stuff.

27 March, 2011

Tournament Odds–Final Four

Kentucky, beware. Heavy computer favorites have not done well.

  Final Four Championship
Kentucky 65.31% 48.41%
Connecticut 34.69% 21.68%
Butler 62.42% 21.27%
VA Commonwealth 37.58% 8.65%

Ok, raise your hand if you had Butler in the Final Four again this year. Now put your hand back down if you’re from Indianapolis and know nothing about basketball.

Ok, who still has their hand raised? Keep your hand up if you had the Bulldogs wearing WHITE (higher seed) in the Final Four. Yeah, liar.

VCU’s chances in the first round was .01%. It’s now 8.65%. That’s an increase of 865 times. Pretty impressive. Butler’s chance was .1%. Now 21.27%. An increase if 212.7 times. Not too shabby either. Kentucky was the computer’s 11th choice originally. Now their first choice. UConn? 21st choice. Now 2nd choice.

Usually the computer does pretty well. This year, it’s learning humility.

Updates again next Sunday where the computer will pick a winner. If you’re betting, I’d go against whomever it picks.