The first college football game.
Rutgers and New Jersey (later known as Princeton) faced off in what is considered to be the first American football game ever played on Nov. 6, 1869.
The game took place in New Brunswick, New Jersey, with an audience of about 100 on hand, according to Rutgers.
Rutgers won 6-4.
Between work, family, and my new website, I’ve not had a chance to take a spare breath. The new website has consumed much more of my time than I expected, but it’s finally in a state where I can start showing it to the public.
You’ll recall that it’s a Sports Ratings site. I rank the teams and project winners of the games. And quite a bit more. You’ll have to go to the site to see. It’s at www.cjbratings.com.
Haven’t piqued your curiosity yet? Hmm, well, I do know that many of my more avid readers are NFL football fans, so let’s toss this out to stir the pot.
Sorry fans of San Francisco, Washington, Chicago, Dallas, NY Giants, Denver, Arizona, NY Jets, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, Minnesota and San Diego. Unless something unforeseen happens, your team isn’t winning the Super Bowl this year.
Also, heartfelt sympathies to fans of St. Louis, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, Minnesota and San Diego. Unless something unforeseen happens, your team isn’t even making the playoffs this year.
Packers fans, your team has a better than 1 in 4 chance of going 19-0.
See the details at http://www.cjbratings.com/NFL/Playoffs.
Nope?
Only 2 college football teams at this point in the season have better than a 2.5% chance of finishing the season undefeated. No, I’m not going to tell you who they are. You’ll have to go look for yourself at http://www.cjbratings.com/NCAAF/Undefeated.
For regular updates, follow @CJBRatings on Twitter!
Congratulations to Louisville, Western Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida International, and Troy, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 70. That is the magic number. And there is still one more week left in the season. Clearly we need more bowls.
Condolences to Colorado, Texas, Cincinnati, Louisiana-Monroe, Idaho, Rutgers, California, UCLA, Houston, and Florida Atlantic, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season. That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 46.
Oregon State, Washington, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee State can still reach bowl eligibility in the final week of the regular season.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
MLE:
Congratulations to Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Illinois, SMU, Notre Dame, and BYU which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 64. There are 35 bowls this season, so we only need 6 more teams.
Condolences to Purdue, Indiana, Kent State, Utah State, Marshall, Tulane, Arkansas State, Mississippi, and Iowa State, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 36.
There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
Yes, I know it’s been almost two weeks since I’ve updated anything here. Things have been busy at home. And I’ve been making lots of changes to my sports ratings application, some to improve, and some because the site that I retrieve my college basketball information from is no longer being updated. So, I had to find a new site, and write the code to handle it. In the process I found a couple bugs that needed to be fixed, so I had to spend some time on that as well.
Anyway, the long and the short is that I’ve been busy, but should be able to return to more regular updates starting this weekend.
Congratulations to South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia, East Carolina, Army, Miami-Ohio, Air Force, and Kentucky which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 55. There are 35 bowls this season, so we still need 15 teams. That’s quite a bit considering that most teams will end their season in the next two weeks.
Condolences to Alabama-Birmingham, Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and Arizona State, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 27.
There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
I have really revamped MLE this week. It now handles “surprises” much better. Basically, if a team has played 5 games and been fairly consistent for four of them, but played at a radically different level for the 5th, then the computer now limits the impact of that fifth game. This is something I’ve been meaning to put in for quite a while, as I use MLE for projections, and this should make my projections better.
Here’s this week’s MLE top 5:
As I predicted last update, Oregon’s MLE rating is no longer stratospheric. They’re actually at a fairly reasonable level for the #1 team this late in the season. 1945 Army can rest knowing that once again they are #1 all time, and likely to remain so.
Congratulations to Miami (FL), North Carolina, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Penn State, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP, Navy, Air Force, Florida, and Fresno State, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 47. There are 35 bowls this season, so we still need 23 teams.
Condolences to North Texas, Rice, Colorado State, New Mexico State, Wake Forest, Buffalo, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-Lafayette, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 22.
There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
I said last week that Win puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule (SOS). I have modified it starting this week to take that into consideration. I still think I can do some more work here, but I’m happier with the results.
MLE (maximum likelihood estimate):
Oregon has now passed 1945 Army in MLE and is now #1 all time. In addition, Boise State has surged to #4 all time. I still expect them to fall back to earth a bit before the end of the season, but I could be wrong. It’s near certain at this point that if Oregon and TCU were to play for the title, the winner would be #1 all time in MLE.
Sorry so late this week. Been busy with election stuff and real life.
Congratulations to Maryland, North Carolina State, Iowa, Northwestern, Central Florida, Ohio, Toledo, Arkansas, South Carolina, Hawaii, Nevada, and San Diego State, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 34. There are 35 bowls this season so we’re nearly half way there.
Condolences to Wyoming, Western Kentucky, Central Michigan, Ball State, Memphis, and UNLV, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 14.
There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
In my opinion, my “Win” rating puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule (SOS), and therefore rates teams like Missouri and Oklahoma (with one loss each) too high. I’ve tinkered with it a little bit, but haven’t come up with a solution I like better. If I de-emphasize it too much I get undefeated teams from the Football Championship Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1AA) ranked in the top 10, and I don’t believe that for a minute. So, I’m looking for a better balance, and I don’t think I’m quite there. I may have to change my algorithm completely, which might mean that this has to sit on the back burner for a while.
MLE (maximum likelihood estimate):
MLE has Oregon and TCU as #2 and #3 all time, behind 1945 Army. I expect them to fall back to earth a bit before the end of the season, but we’ll see.
Congratulations to Virginia Tech, Baylor, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Temple, Arizona, Stanford, and Mississippi State, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 22. There are 35 bowls this season so we’ll need 70 bowl eligible teams.
Condolences to Minnesota, Bowling Green, Washington State, Eastern Michigan, San Jose State, and New Mexico which made the bowl ineligibility list. That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 8.
There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
MLE (maximum likelihood estimates):
Congratulations to Florida State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Utah, Alabama and Boise State which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 14. There are 35 bowls this season, so we’ll need 70 bowl eligible teams.
Condolences to Akron which joins USC (probation) on the bowl ineligibility list. Akron is the first team to make the list based upon win loss record.
Ratings?
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
MLE (maximum likelihood estimates):
As I said would happen, Win and Composite look better this week. You’ll notice that there’s still quite a bit of turnover in the top 5, however. Expect that to continue for at least a couple more weeks.
Oklahoma travels to Missouri this weekend in what the computer thinks is the most important game of the season.
Enjoy!
Congratulations to Auburn, LSU, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU which all became bowl eligible this week. They are the first teams to become bowl eligible this season.
Coincident with their bowl eligibility, my computer generally likes all of them: Auburn #13, LSU #2, Michigan State #16, Ohio State #8, Oregon #9, and TCU #4.
Computer top 5:
The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.
In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:
MLE (maximum likelihood estimates):
My experience is that MLE starts to look “reasonable” about a week or so before Win and Composite. So, if you’re screaming at me because BSU and LSU are #1 and #2, look at MLE and wait until next week.
