Since I do all those college football ratings (yes, I’ll release a season ending one—just need to write the sucker), you might have speculated that I do NFL ones as well. You’d be right.
Using my Monte Carlo simulator, I’ve projected out the rest of the NFL playoffs. The results are below.
The first table lists each team’s chance to make the conference championship game, which is also the chance of winning the next game.
| Team | Chance to make conference championship game |
| Chicago Bears | 86.74% |
| New England Patriots | 71.55% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 70.07% |
| Green Bay Packers | 60.04% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 39.96% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 29.93% |
| New York Jets | 28.45% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 13.26% |
The next table lists each team’s chance to make the Super Bowl, or of winning their respective conference championship.
| Team | Chance to make Super Bowl |
| New England Patriots | 48.92% |
| Green Bay Packers | 42.83% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 30.38% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 28.30% |
| Chicago Bears | 28.13% |
| New York Jets | 10.40% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.31% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.74% |
And now, the numbers you’ve been waiting for. Chance to win the Super Bowl.
| Team | Chance to Win Super Bowl |
| New England Patriots | 31.57% |
| Green Bay Packers | 22.79% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 17.05% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.24% |
| Chicago Bears | 8.84% |
| New York Jets | 4.89% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4.56% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.06% |
Tune in next week for updated chances.
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