12 January, 2011

Who’s Going To Win The Super Bowl?

Since I do all those college football ratings (yes, I’ll release a season ending one—just need to write the sucker), you might have speculated that I do NFL ones as well. You’d be right.

Using my Monte Carlo simulator, I’ve projected out the rest of the NFL playoffs. The results are below.

The first table lists each team’s chance to make the conference championship game, which is also the chance of winning the next game.

Team Chance to make conference championship game
Chicago Bears 86.74%
New England Patriots 71.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers 70.07%
Green Bay Packers 60.04%
Atlanta Falcons 39.96%
Baltimore Ravens 29.93%
New York Jets 28.45%
Seattle Seahawks 13.26%


The next table lists each team’s chance to make the Super Bowl, or of winning their respective conference championship.

Team Chance to make Super Bowl
New England Patriots 48.92%
Green Bay Packers 42.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers 30.38%
Atlanta Falcons 28.30%
Chicago Bears 28.13%
New York Jets 10.40%
Baltimore Ravens 10.31%
Seattle Seahawks 0.74%


And now, the numbers you’ve been waiting for. Chance to win the Super Bowl.

Team Chance to Win Super Bowl
New England Patriots 31.57%
Green Bay Packers 22.79%
Pittsburgh Steelers 17.05%
Atlanta Falcons 10.24%
Chicago Bears 8.84%
New York Jets 4.89%
Baltimore Ravens 4.56%
Seattle Seahawks 0.06%


Tune in next week for updated chances.

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