Jobless Claims

Something has been bothering me for a while about the jobless claims reports, so I went back and checked the data. For once, I’m not going to opine. I’m just going to present the numbers, and let you draw your own conclusion. I report, you decide.

UPDATE 5/18/12: I found the last week that claims were not revised upwards. 6/19/11

Week	Jobless Claims	Headline	Revision after 1 week
7/14/12	386,000	Weekly Claims Post Rebound; Jobs Market Still in Doldrums
7/7/12	350,000	Weekly jobless claims drop sharply to lowest level in four years	352,000
6/30/12	374,000	New unemployment claims drop; key report projects stronger job growth	376,000
6/23/12	386,000	Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near 2012 High	388,000
6/16/12	387,000	US jobless claims fall, but 4-wk avg at 6-month high	392,000
6/9/12	386,000	Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose Last Week	389,000
6/2/12	377,000	U.S. jobless claims fall by 12,000	380,000
5/26/12	383,000	Weekly unemployment claims rise modestly	389,000
5/19/12	370,000	U.S. weekly jobless claims dip slightly to 370,000	373,000
5/12/12	370,000	Jobless claims steady; Mid-Atlantic factories sag	372,000
5/5/12	367,000	Jobless claims fall marginally last week	370,000
4/28/12	365,000	Weekly Jobless Claims Ease; Productivity Drops 0.5%	368,000
4/21/12	388,000	Jobless Claims Fall 1K to 388K	392,000
4/14/12	386,000	Jobless claims –2K to 386K	389,000
4/7/12	380,000	Jobless claims unexpectedly rise	388,000
3/31/12	357,000	Jobless claims fall to lowest since 2008	367,000
3/24/12	359,000	US jobless claims fall to 4 year low in latest week	363,000
3/17/12	348,000	US jobless claims at 4 year low, lift recovery hopes	364,000
3/10/12	351,000	Jobless claims back at 4 year lows	353,000
3/3/12	362,000	US Jobless claims rise, but labor market healing	365,000
2/25/12	351,000	Jobless Claims fall by 2,000 to 351,000	354,000
2/18/12	351,000	Jobless claims hold steady at 4-year low	353,000
2/11/12	348,000	Jobs, factory data strengthen growth outlook	351,000
2/4/12	358,000	Jobless claims drop brightens labor market picture	361,000
1/28/12	367,000	Jobless claims fall, jobs market slowly healing	373,000
1/21/12	377,000	Jobless claims rise in latest week	379,000
1/14/12	352,000	US jobless claims near 4 year low	356,000
1/7/12	399,000	US jobless claims rise	402,000
12/31/11	372,000	Private hiring soars	375,000
12/24/11	381,000	--	387,000
12/17/11	364,000		366,000
12/10/11	366,000		368,000
12/3/11	381,000		385,000
11/26/11	402,000		404,000
11/19/11	393,000		396,000
11/12/11	388,000		391,000
11/5/11	390,000		393,000
10/29/11	397,000		400,000
10/22/11	402,000		406,000
10/15/11	403,000		404,000
10/8/11	404,000		409,000
10/1/11	401,000		405,000
9/24/11	391,000		395,000
9/17/11	423,000		428,000
9/10/11	428,000		432,000
9/3/11	414,000		417,000
8/27/11	409,000		412,000
8/20/11	417,000		421,000
8/13/11	408,000		412,000
8/6/11	395,000		399,000
7/30/11	400,000		402,000
7/23/11	398,000		401,000
7/16/11	418,000		422,000
7/9/11	405,000		408,000
7/2/11	418,000		427,000
6/25/11	428,000		432,000
6/18/11	429,000		429,000

 

Getting too hard to find the articles this far back. But you get the point. Every single jobless claims report this year has been revised upwards the following week. And in just about every case, Reuters headline was either negated by the revision, or proven optimistic the very next week.

Here are the 4 week moving averages, as initially reported, and after revised.

Week	Initially reported 4 week average	After revision
7/14/12	375,500	--
7/7/12	376,500	377,000
6/30/12	385,750	386,250
6/23/12	386,750	387,250
6/16/12	386,250	387,500
6/9/12	382,000	382,750
6/2/12	377,750	378,500
5/26/12	374,500	376,000
5/19/12	370,000	370,750
5/12/12	375,000	375,500
5/5/12	379,000	379,750
4/28/12	383,500	384,250
4/21/12	383,000	384,000
4/14/12	376,000	376,750
4/7/12	368,500	370,500
3/31/12	359,250	361,750
3/24/12	360,250	361,250
3/17/12	355,000	359,000
3/10/12	355,750	356,250
3/3/12	355,000	355,750
2/25/12	354,000	354,750
2/18/12	359,000	359,750
2/11/12	365,250	366,000
2/4/12	367,750	368,500
1/28/12	376,000	377,500
1/21/12	377,500	378,000
1/14/12	379,000	380,000
1/7/12	381,750	382,500
12/31/11	373,250	374,000
12/24/11	375,000	376,000
12/17/11	380,250	380,750
12/10/11	387,750	388,250
12/3/11	393,000	394,000
11/26/11	395,500	396,000
11/19/11	394,250	395,000
11/12/11	396,750	397,500
11/5/11	400,000	400,750
10/29/11	404,000	404,750
10/22/11	405,000	406,000
10/15/11	403,000	403,250
10/8/11	408,000	409,250
10/1/11	414,000	415,000
9/24/11	417,000	418,000
9/17/11	421,000	422,250
9/10/11	419,500	420,500
9/3/11	414,750	415,500
8/27/11	410,250	411,000
8/20/11	407,500	408,500
8/13/11	402,500	403,500
8/6/11	405,000	406,000
7/30/11	407,750	408,250
7/23/11	413,750	414,500
7/16/11	421,250	422,250
7/9/11	423,250	424,000

 

The short? Jobless claims are lower than they were at the beginning of the year, but the rolling average has been trending the wrong way for the last several weeks. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that from the Reuters reports, would you?

UPDATE: Added new data from week of 4/14 on 4/19

UPDATE: Added new data from week of 4/21 on 4/26. Also, you may notice that my 4 week rolling averages are slightly different than the released averages. Why? Because I actually take a 4 week average of the released numbers. Imagine that. BLS seasonally adjusts the averages. Of course, the numbers themselves are seasonally adjusted, so doing a second seasonal adjustment after averaging seems like fudging the data to me, but YMMV.

UPDATE 5/3: Added new data from week of 4/28. Big drop this week. But rolling average still going up. And last week’s revised upwards. Again.

I’ve been meaning to include this for the last couple of weeks. This is from ZeroHedge, who noticed not only the upward revisions, but their size:

Times Three: That's How Much The BLS Upwardly Fudges Data During An Election Year

Indeed, the most recent revision was the fourth largest on record.  If one only read the headlines this year (at such blogs that specialize in architectural billings, deliveries by canoe, and what not), one would have the impression that Initial Claims have fallen nearly 25,000 this year.  The revised reality? Barely over 10,000.  And that’s a 10,000 improvement against a number that has been revised upward by 50,000.  So, yeah.

Stay tuned for next week’s update.

UPDATE 5/10: SSDD. At least the 4 week rolling average went down this week. That’s the only silver lining in this week’s report. Well, I suppose there’s one more. This is two weeks in a row we’ve been in the 365k-370k range, a decent improvement from 380k-390k, which is where we were the previous month.

UPDATE 5/17: Repeat of last week. Again, the 4 week average dropped a bit. But it’s still a good 15-20K higher than it was two months ago. And that’s still not good.

UPDATE 5/18: I added a lot more rows to the tables. Last week claims were not revised upwards was 6/19/11. Initial report for that week was 429,000. After revision, 429,000. You’ll notice that it still wasn’t revised downwards. Average revision in the 46 weeks since then: ~+4,000 (3,978.26).

UPDATE 5/24: Ditto on my update of 5/17.

UPDATE 5/31: 48 weeks in a row. Also, a rather large jump over the last month. The last report in April is 365,000. Last report in May is 383,000. And the 4 week rolling average ended it’s three week run of dips.

UPDATE 6/7: 49 weeks in a row. Pretty big upward revision too. Starting next week, the Department of Labor is making some disturbing changes to the way this information is disseminated. But, I’m sure it’s entirely innocent.

Update 6/14: 50 weeks in a row.

Update 6/21: 51 weeks in a row. Oh, and the DoL has decided not to change their rules on publishing their information. For the time being.