Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts

07 November, 2012

#INSen

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. Richard Mourdock (R-IN) was a bad candidate. But Senator-elect Joe Donnelly (D-IN) was also a bad candidate. He was picked by the IN Democrats to be the sacrificial lamb to Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN), because he wasn't going to hold his congressional seat (congrats to Congresswoman-elect Jackie Walorski (R-IN02)), and because they couldn't find anyone else to run.

That’s the God’s honest truth.

We are conservative in IN, with down home family values. But because of that, we like to think that we're above the partisan fray in Washington. We like to think that we can elect common sense folk who can work to get things done, regardless of party. That’s why our state house changes from red to blue so often and so does our governor’s mansion. It’s why we elect people like former Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN), and former Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN).

The difference between Donnelly and Mourdock was that Donnelly ran a terrific campaign right from the start and Mourdock ran an awful one right from the start. A lot of people will point to Mourdock’s comments about rape in the debate as the reason he lost. But he was in trouble long before then. Donnelly painted Mourdock as an extremist, before a lot of people in IN even knew who Mourdock was. And he continued to hammer that theme home right up until election day. It was a great strategy. It defined Mourdock as the opposite of a common sense person who would just work to get things done. Mourdock was never able to overcome that, and he was never able to turn it around on Donnelly either, who is just as much of an extremist as Mourdock (more so in my mind, but that’s just my opinion). Mourdock instead decided to attach Donnelly to President Obama (D-USA) and ObamaCare. The problem is that there are a lot of people in IN that still like Obama. And even more that still like ObamaCare. By sticking with that attack, Mourdock put a ceiling on his numbers, and never had a chance to break through it.

It’s easy for me to Wednesday morning quarterback, but Mourdock should have spent more time telling us a) what he would do for IN, b) what Donnelly would do for IN, c) that Donnelly was the extremist in the race, and d) that he wasn’t the extremist Donnelly claimed he was. I’m not sure he spent any significant time on ANY of those items. Certainly nothing he said or did to those ends sticks out in my mind. Instead it was just “Donnelly will vote in lockstep with Obama” over and over.

I know this blog has been quiet for a while. It will likely continue to remain so. What motivates me to blog is most anger and frustration, although sometimes it’s happiness. I’ve seen the writing on the wall here for months, and I’ve been resigned to the outcome. That emotion doesn’t inspire me to blog, but instead inspires me to work harder at my job and spend more time with my family. Take care of you and yours and peek in here from time to time. I’m sure I’ll continue to have things to say, just on an infrequent basis.

The Painful Truth

I could’ve written this post a week ago. I waited. But the writing was on the wall, even then.

First:

Believe the polls. It’s fine to analyze the internals of the polls and point out when they don’t make sense. It’s particularly reasonable to do this when it’s six months out from the election, and no one knows what the electorate is going to look like. But when it gets down to three, two, and one week before the election, and you’re still not believing the polls, the problem is likely your premise, not theirs. Just the other day, I saw a rather famous person in the conservative Twittersphere picking apart a Rasmussen poll. Now, Rasmussen is consistently one of the friendliest polls to the GOP, and yet this person was still saying that if X on the poll was wrong and Y was wrong, that it was good for Romney. Sorry, but if you’re doing that a few days out from the election, and with the best poll you’ve got, it smacks of desperation. RCP poll averages are generally just about right. Remember that.

Second:

Nate Silver was right. If he got Virginia right, then he may have gone 50 for 50. I don’t know. I haven’t checked. Silver’s method is basically sound. I think there are things that could be done to improve it. But it’s basically ok. You can duplicate a significant part of his work in less than an hour in Excel. Just use the RCP poll numbers, and the Monte Carlo function in Excel. If you’d done that, you would’ve gotten results very similar to Silver’s. A lot of people on the right owe Silver an engraved apology today.

Third:

It’s fine to want party purity, but you also have to nominate good candidates. Richard Mourdock (R-IN) was a bad candidate (more on this race in another post). So were others. And if you didn’t know that 6 months ago, then you weren’t paying attention. This blog told you that Mourdock was a bad candidate at least 8 months ago. More than once. Now, yes, I am just as much to blame as others here. I voted for Mourdock in the primary, knowing he was a bad candidate. I thought that former Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) would come around, and in the 2012 environment, in a red state, that even a bad candidate would win. I was wrong.

Fourth:

NRSC, you have some serious egg on your face this morning. Yes, you can only work with the candidates you have. And you’re powerless when they say something stupid. And you can’t force them to run a good campaign. But you can help out with direction, and with education on how not to say something stupid in front of the camera. You didn’t. You failed. A lot of last night’s Senate debacle falls on you. Yes, a lot falls on organizations like Freedomworks who were more interested in party purity than in winning, but you need to take your share of the blame as well.

Fifth:

If there’s a group with more egg on their faces than the NRSC, it’s the conservative punditocracy. I expect partisan spin from you. I expect optimism. But you went far past that into partisan cheerleading. You weren’t just optimistic, you were confident. Excessively so. Some of you were ebullient. With no logical reason to be so. You need to take a long hard look in the mirror and figure out why that was and why you let us down, so that it won’t happen again. Spin is ok, but if I can’t get the truth from you, even when it’s bad, then you’re no better to me than MSNBC. The conservative blogosphere seems more isolated in an echo chamber than the “inside the beltway” crowd, if that’s possible. And that’s unacceptable.

26 June, 2012

Polling the President—June 2012

It’s that time again. Time for my monthly look at President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) polling figures.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 48.3/47.5. Last month, he was +0.6, today he’s +0.8. That counts as statistical noise, but does include a rather bizarre +9 poll from Bloomberg. Exclude that poll, and it’s a bit of a dip from last month. We’ll see where things stand next month. This is almost exactly where he stood one year ago. But one year ago was the start of a summer swoon for the President. Two years ago the same happened. A third summer of discontent will send the campaign into a panic.

Right Track/Wrong Track contains considerably less good news for the President. Last month the spread was –24.7. Today, the numbers are 31.3/61.5, which is a –30.2 spread. We’re approaching 2:1 on people thinking we’re headed the wrong direction. Those are dismal numbers for a President seeking re-election.

Next, I move on to the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. Consumer confidence continues to fall. It dropped from 64.4 in May to 62.0 in June. Again, as I keep saying, the only good news here is that these numbers are better than the mid 40 numbers we were seeing last summer. But we’re headed in that direction again. So far there’s little reason to suspect that the July numbers will be any better than June, but they may not be much worse either. Next Friday’s BLS report may give us the biggest indicator as to where consumer confidence will be headed.

Now, on to General Election numbers. The polling average for former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) vs. President Barack Obama (D-USA) are as follows: Obama 46.8, Romney 44.2. Both numbers are higher than last month, and the spread for Obama has increased from 2.0 to 2.6. This is one area where things have gotten a bit better for Obama. And this is the most important average of the bunch. However, this includes a +13 Bloomberg poll. Excluding the Bloomberg poll yields an average spread of 1.3, down pretty markedly from last month. If Bloomberg releases another poll like this next month that is such a significant outlier, I will exclude it from my numbers. For now, though, it stays in.

In addition, the daily tracking polls are looking bad for the President. Romney has led in Rasmussen’s poll for the last 18 straight days. In Gallup, Romney has only trailed one day out of the last 12. You’d have to be an incredible optimist to think this qualifies as good news for the President.

While I personally think that in the end, things will go Romney’s way, the polling hasn’t shifted in his direction as much as I’d expected. But June definitely shows a shift in Romney’s favor. I have been pointing out for several months that the polling numbers were a mixed bag for the President. That is not true this month. The only one that’s not bad news is the General Election average. And the only reason it’s not bad news is the Bloomberg outlier.

Just last month, I said that based upon current polls, I’d give Obama a slight edge in November. That’s been true for several months. I’m officially shifting that to “toss up” as of now. July may be the turning point in the campaign. Either Romney’s momentum fades, or he capitalizes on it, and starts to look like a favorite. A July fade for either campaign will stack the odds heavily against them.

Starting next month, I’ll include some head-to-head numbers in battleground states. Right now, these are the only bright spots for Obama. But just like everywhere else, the trend is in the wrong direction. I will likely do two updates each in July and August, then go to weekly ones starting in September.

20 June, 2012

I’m Thrilled That Obama Has Asserted Executive Privilege Over Fast & Furious Documents

Yes, you read that right. For the first time in two years, thinking about Fast & Furious is bringing a smile to my face, rather than raising my blood pressure.

I have said all along that this scandal is bigger than Watergate. And it has infuriated me to no end that it’s been continually brushed under the rug and ignored by the MSM. Attorney General Eric Holder’s stonewalling, lying, and obfuscation over the issue has been making me pull my hair out. As has the long slow slog by Congress to proceed with contempt charges against Mr. Holder.

So, why am I happy today?

President Barack Obama (D-USA) has officially involved himself in this mess now. By asserting executive privilege on the subpoenaed documents, he now owns it. Obama’s ace in the hole this entire time has been that the lapdog media is willing to cover for him. To say that they have not pursued this topic with any diligence is the understatement of the year. NBC Nightly News first mention ever of the scandal was on June 12, 2012! For those keeping score, that’s a mere 545 days after the murder of border patrol agent Brian Terry.

That’s pathetic. It’s beyond pathetic. Its disgusting.

But now, with contempt charges looming against the U.S. Attorney General, and with Obama’s assertion of executive privilege, it will be much harder for the MSM to ignore. We’ve been told for months now that Fast & Furious was a regional program, and that no one at the White House or the upper echelons of the Department of Justice really knew anything about it. That’s been obviously false for some time, but that hasn’t kept Holder from repeating it. But the assertion of executive privilege makes it more difficult for Holder now. If Holder’s been telling the truth, executive privilege wouldn’t be necessary, and in fact, wouldn’t even apply.

This is a big, big problem for Holder and Obama now. And while we still have a lapdog media, there are a few that still try to do their jobs. There are more still that may be biased, but also will smell blood in the water. Another of the many infuriating pieces of this whole story is how Holder and the DoJ have shut down access to the people with firsthand knowledge. You can do that merely by preventing them from appearing before Congressional inquiries, but only if there are no (or few) nosy reporters poking around.

There are going to be more nosy reporters poking around now. And, if there’s anything to find, they’re going to find it. Or they’re going to eventually convince one of these people to talk. And then a second will talk. And then a third. And every time one of these people talks, it’s going to be the lead story of the day. Don’t believe me? Go read “All the President’s Men”. That’s exactly how it went down.

As I keep saying, this is bigger than Watergate. I’m not the only person making that comparison, and after today’s assertion of executive privilege, even more will do so. When people think of executive privilege and scandals, they think of Nixon. That’s not a comparison Obama wants anyone to make.

Again, don’t believe me? Here’s what’s on Drudge right now.

nixon obama

President Obama today just made Fast & Furious a legitimate election issue. It may turn out to be the second biggest issue after the economy. I couldn’t be happier.

06 June, 2012

Walker Survives Recall: What Does It Mean?

I have a slightly different take on the WI Governor race than most of my conservative brethren. Last night, Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) survived his recall election against Mayor Tom Barrett (D-Milwaukee). The margin of victory was about 7 points (53%-46%). This exceeds his victory margin from 2010 (also against Barrett) slightly.

Exit polls showed the race a dead heat, at 50/50. These same polls also gave President Barack Obama (D-USA) a 7-9 point edge over former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) in the race for the White House. Conservatives are saying that the exit polls were about 7 points off, so WI is now a battleground state, and is essentially tied.

Maybe. My guess is likely not, but I won’t say that’s certain. I will say that’s the wrong lesson to be taking from last night’s election.

My guess is that Obama still wins WI in November, by about 3-4 points. Now, that’s certainly close enough that it’s worthwhile for Romney to invest some money there and see if he can gain any traction. But, I think it’s unlikely to be a deciding state. If Romney wins WI, look for him to cruise to victory nationally in November, with probably something approaching 350 electoral votes.

That may happen, but few people are betting that way just yet.

I think looking at WI and wondering whether Romney can win it is taking the small view. I’m looking at the big picture. The last 3 elections have all been “wave” elections, with Republicans winning big in 2010, but Democrats winning big in 2008 and 2006. Even 2004 was a small wave for the GOP, in that President George W. Bush (R-USA) expanded his win over 2000 and got expanded majorities in both chambers of Congress, which is exceptionally rare for a 2nd term.

More importantly, the D/R/I breakdowns of the electorate shifted dramatically between 2004 and 2006, and again between 2008 and 2010. We have a very frustrated and volatile electorate right now, which makes prognostication exceedingly difficult. If you’re a pollster and you’re using a model that projects 37% of the electorate will be D, but it turns out to be only 33%, your whole forecast is going to be wrong.

So, the challenge for all the pollsters, and for anyone else who wants to take a stab at projecting 2012 results, is predicting where that D/R/I breakdown is going to land. So far, no one is predicting that 2012 will be a wave election. But, the question in everyone’s mind is whether it will more closely resemble 2008, or 2010.

Walker exceeded his victory margin from 2010 over the same opponent.

That means, in WI at least, 2012 looks like it may be much closer to 2010 than 2008. Perhaps even better than 2010. Will that translate nationally? That’s the billion dollar question. If the answer is yes, Romney can start thinking about who’s going to be in his Cabinet. Obama can not win in a 2010 environment.

Yes, there are some caveats here. Recall elections are oddballs. Also, it’s very possible that WI may be getting sick of elections, so they may not be quite as enthusiastic in November. And, it’s hard to say whether Romney can generate the same kind of enthusiasm in November anywhere that Walker did in WI yesterday.

In other words, it’s just one data point. Don’t read too much into it. But, if you think they’re not smiling in Romney HQ today and panicked in Obama HQ, then you’re not paying attention.

My personal opinion? Lately this feels like a re-run of the summer of 2010. That makes me very happy.

02 June, 2012

The Candidates and the First Amendment

It’s hard to believe that it’s been almost four years since I last wrote on this. Quite a bit has changed since then, but one thing hasn’t changed. We once again have two candidates running for President from the major parties. So, once again, I’ll be looking at their records from a civil libertarian perspective.

For those that missed this the last time, I examined and compared then Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) based on where they stood on the following issues: First Amendment, Second Amendment, Third Amendment, Fourth Amendment, Fifth Amendment, Sixth Amendment, Seventh Amendment, Eighth Amendment, Eleventh Amendment, Fourteenth Amendment, Fifteenth Amendment, Nineteenth Amendment, Twenty-First Amendment, Twenty-Third Amendment, Twenty-Fourth Amendment, Twenty-Sixth Amendment, Taxes, Abortion, National ID, Voter ID, Card Check, Legalization of Drugs, Gay Rights, Hate Crime Legislation, Growth of Government, Property Rights, Sovereign Rights, Ninth Amendment, and Tenth Amendment. I devoted one post to each of these topics. Some were pretty short, and others were quite long and involved.

Next, I assigned letter grades to each of the two for each item, and at the end produced a weighted final grade. Weightings were necessary, because some of these civil liberties are obviously more important than others. You may be 110% behind gay marriage, but I doubt that even you think that gay marriage is more important then freedom of speech. If you do, you have my sympathies. But I’ll produce a spreadsheet at the end with all my calculations, and you can change the grades and the weightings if you disagree with any of my analysis.

Enough preamble. Let’s get down to it. How do our current Presidential candidates stack up regarding the First Amendment? Like last time, I’ll be looking at information from the First Amendment Center.

Let's quote the First Amendment as a refresher, before we start:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

We’ll start with President Barack Obama (D-USA):

The First Amendment Center is rather kind to Obama, in my opinion.

In its fourth year in office, the Obama administration has a mixed record on issues involving the First Amendment.

[…]

Previously confidential files and rules have since been released for public scrutiny. In 2009, the Justice Department made public the Bush administration 8/1/02 Interrogation Opinion, commonly known as the “torture memos.”

[…]

Still, critics have assailed the administration for not living up to its lofty standards, citing the Justice Department’s refusal to release information concerning domestic wiretapping and surveillance of tourists and U.S. citizens. The department justified the refusal on privacy and national security grounds, according to spokeswoman Tracy Schmaler.

Open-government activists also point to the president’s handling of the Gulf oil spill as an example of unnecessary secrecy. Despite an official government report in 2010 saying the disaster was worse than anticipated, the Obama administration initially presented an overly optimistic portrayal of the cleanup’s success.

[…]

News outlets, including the Associated Press, have criticized the speed with which the administration has met FOIA requests. In 2011, the administration received 544,360 requests but left more than 12,000 of them unmet. Of the cases reviewed, the government denied requests in more than a third of the cases. The administration maintains that it has released more information than past administrations.

[…]

However, relations between the president and religious groups have not always been harmonious. Catholic leaders recently lambasted the administration’s health-insurance mandates requiring religiously affiliated organizations to provide free contraceptive insurance coverage for female employees.

[…]

Though not restrictive of the press, the Obama administration has repeatedly criticized news outlets. The most notable flap occurred in 2009 when White House Communications Director Anita Dunn called the Fox cable network “a wing of the Republican Party.” The president has also sharply criticized news outlets for seeking to gain greater viewership by incorrectly portraying the Washington political scene as combative.

[…]

Reporters have criticized the administration for filing charges against government whistleblowers under the Espionage Act. Invoked six times, the act has drawn criticism for appearing to be a mechanism to hide government misuse of funds.

In 2010, the administration pressed charges against Thomas Drake, a former senior executive at the National Security Agency, for publicly voicing concerns that the government spent an unnecessary amount of money on software when it could have used a cheaper and more effective program.

[…]

In 2010, the president stood as one of the harshest critics of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. In the controversial case, the Court upheld the First Amendment rights of labor unions and corporations to fund campaign ads.

Allow me to sum up. The President has been good about disseminating previously “secret” information to the public, when it has furthered his agenda. He has waged war against the Catholic Church, and news organizations that have been critical of the administration, particularly Fox News. He has not pursued implementation of the Fairness Doctrine, which has surprised me. He does support hate crime legislation, which is in direct opposition to freedom of speech.

Finally, there have been numerous reports this year that the Obama administration is keeping an “enemies list” a la former President Richard Nixon (R-USA).

Try this thought experiment: You decide to donate money to Mitt Romney. You want change in the Oval Office, so you engage in your democratic right to send a check.

Several days later, President Barack Obama, the most powerful man on the planet, singles you out by name. His campaign brands you a Romney donor, shames you for "betting against America," and accuses you of having a "less-than-reputable" record. The message from the man who controls the Justice Department (which can indict you), the SEC (which can fine you), and the IRS (which can audit you), is clear: You made a mistake donating that money.

The WSJ may be engaging in a little bit of fear mongering here, but there’s no doubt that this is worrisome behavior from the White House. Still, it’s not like Obama is exposing secrets. All of the donor information is public record, and there’s nothing keeping Daily Kos or Huffington Post or whoever, from doing exactly what Obama has done. It’s just a little different, and a little scarier, when it comes directly from the head of the government.

That’s Obama. Now, let’s look at former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA):

As Massachusetts governor from 2002 to 2006, Romney proposed legislation that would have exempted religious organizations from having to provide adoption services to same-sex couples.

[…]

In 2005, Romney abandoned plans to exempt Catholic-run hospitals from a state law that requires all hospitals to make the morning-after pill available to “each female rape victim.” Announcing his decision, he said, “I think, in my personal view, it’s the right thing for hospitals to provide information and access to emergency contraception to anyone who is a victim of rape.”

[…]

He did not support a bill to create 35-foot protest-free buffer zones around abortion clinics in his state. Within a year of Romney’s leaving office, his successor, Deval Patrick, signed the legislation.

In the area of campaign finance, Romney vetoed a 2006 bill that would have repealed a ban on printing, publishing or distributing any poster or circular “designed to aid or defeat any candidate for nomination or election to any public office” without identifying individuals who issued or were otherwise responsible for the publication.

Records from Romney’s service as governor became a source of controversy in the 2012 campaign when a Boston Globe article suggested that Romney’s administration tried to purge all e-mail records after his term. According to the report, members of the administration took computers with them and replaced e-mail servers. However, the Associated Press later reported, Massachusetts public-records law doesn’t apply to the governor’s office, so there appears to be nothing illegal in the computer removal. Romney said the messages were deleted because they may have contained confidential information. However, on Dec. 6, 2011, Massachusetts announced that previously closed records from the state’s archives would be made publicly available.

More on his time as head of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City:

At the time, Romney said he supported the designated free-speech zones to promote safety and ease traffic flow. Although the decisions regarding outside protesters fell on city officials, it was later reported that the Olympic committee asked the city to remove two protest zones — which were only large enough to hold 10 people each — located inside the Olympic square. An Olympic committee spokesperson denied that the group made the request.

In addition to the free-speech zones, Romney took a stance on public standards when he set a firm policy on what types of music to play during certain events. For instance, he prohibited music popular among snowboarders from the snowboarding competition because he deemed it too profane.

And as candidate Romney:

In the 2008 and 2012 campaigns, Romney has taken a few stances that directly involve First Amendment principles.

The strongest of these is his position against the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law: He advocates its repeal.

[…]

In 2007, Romney said, “the American people should be free to advocate for their candidates and their positions without burdensome limitations.” Instead, he said he supports reforms “that promote transparency and disclosure, preserve grassroots activism and protect the ability to criticize or endorse current officeholders and candidates.” He calls McCain-Feingold “burdensome” and “riddled with shortcomings.”

[…]

On the 2012 campaign trail, Romney has continued to oppose campaign-finance regulations, supporting the ability of candidates to collect unlimited donations instead of allowing campaigns to be indirectly supported by money from super PACs. “Let campaigns then take responsibility for their own words,” Romney said in the Jan. 16, 2012, debate in South Carolina.

[…]

In remarks in April 2008, Romney described the goals of the Ocean’s Initiatives: “I’d like to see us clean up the water in which our kids are swimming. I’d like to keep pornography from coming up on their computers. I’d like to keep drugs off the streets. I’d like to see less violence and sex on TV and in video games and in movies. And if we get serious about this, we can actually do a great deal to clean up the water in which our kids and our grandkids are swimming.”

[…]

In the 2012 campaign, Romney has continued to speak in favor of religious freedom. After the Supreme Court unanimously ruled against a Michigan teacher’s challenge to her firing from a Lutheran Church-sponsored school in Hosanna-Tabor Evangelical Lutheran Church and School v. EEOC, Romney voiced his support of the decision to the audience at a Faith and Freedom Coalition event in Myrtle Beach, S.C., saying, “We are very fortunate to have people who are willing to stand up for religious tolerance and religious liberty and the First Amendment of this Constitution in this country.”

Romney has expressed concern about the Obama administration’s treatment of religious liberty, criticizing the Department of Health and Human Service’s decision to require schools and hospitals, including those that are run by the Catholic Church and other faith groups, to cover contraception under their employee insurance plans.

I have to be honest here. Some of the information above surprised me. I’ve done this a few times now, and I generally keep tabs on First Amendment issues. So, I tend to know where major politicians stand regarding the First Amendment. Mitt Romney may be the most friendly major politician to the First Amendment that I’ve ever seen.

Yes, he did require Catholic hospitals to offer the morning-after pill, and he enforced free speech zones at the Olympics, as well as banning some music that he considered profane. Of the three, only the first is all that big of a deal. As the person in charge of the Olympics, his responsibility was to make sure that it went smoothly and was enjoyable to the spectators there as well as at home. His responsibility was not to make sure that people would be able to scream obscenities on national TV. Even with the first, he essentially is saying that religious hospitals can not refuse to provide emergency services based upon their faith.

I’m Catholic, and I’m opposed to the morning after pill and abortions. But from a practical standpoint, I understand his logic here. Still, it does impinge on the freedom of religion, and he’ll be docked a bit for it.

Those of you who read this series in 2008 will recall that I was extremely critical of Mr. Obama on this issue, eventually giving him an ‘F’ letter grade. I have since modified my stance, a little. While it’s clear to me that he’s been no friend of the First Amendment, he hasn’t quite turned out to be the enemy that I feared. Still, he did tell his supporters to “get in their faces” regarding Tea Parties and there is that enemies list.

Still, I’m going to raise his grade from last time, but I will be willing to reconsider, should his campaign start attacking free speech again.

Whew. That’s a lot. what about the grades?

Obama: D (subject to further review)

Romney: B (while he’s terrific compared to his peers, it’s hard to get an ‘A’ on this one)

First Amendment: Advantage Romney.

Results so far:

  Obama Romney
First Amendment D B

01 June, 2012

The Battle For the Soul of the Democratic Party

There’s been an interesting little feud among the Democrats this last week or so, and I think it may represent more than just squabbles on how President Barack Obama (D-USA) should run his re-election campaign.

First it was Newark, New Jersey Mayor Cory Booker (D), who went on Meet the Press:

Newark N.J. Mayor Cory Booker (D) expressed reserve about the Obama campaign's Bain strategy against Mitt Romney, telling "Meet The Press" viewers on Sunday that he was "uncomfortable" with the line of attacks.

"This kind of stuff is nauseating to me on both sides," Booker said. "It's nauseating to the American public. Enough is enough. Stop attacking private equity."

Booker was referencing the Obama campaign's Monday release of a series of documentary-esque Bain videos.

Booker later back tracked somewhat, but I’m convinced he meant what he said, and the back track was due to pressure from the White House.

This was followed by former Senator Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN):

Booker is not the only Democrat to question the aggressive, negative portrayal of Romney’s work in private equity.  Former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. said today he agreed with “the substance” of Booker’s comments and “would not have backed out.”

“I agree with him, private equity is not a bad thing. Matter of fact, private equity is a good thing in many, many instances,” the Democrat said in a separate appearance on MSNBC earlier in the day.

Next came Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA):

Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Thursday, Patrick called Bain “a perfectly fine company.”

“They have a role in the private economy, and I’ve got a lot of friends there … on both sides of the aisle,” Patrick added. “I think the Bain strategy has been distorted in some of the public discussions.”

And if that wasn’t bad enough, on the same day we also got former President Bill Clinton (D-USA):

Clinton found himself in similar circumstances. “I think he had a good business career,” he said of Romney, when queried about Bain. He also called Mitt’s record “sterling”, adding “So I don’t think that we ought to get into the position where we say this is bad work. This is good work.”

I think what you’re seeing here is far more significant than questioning Obama’s attacks on Bain Capital, or even just a defense of Bain Capital.

For years now, many of us on the right have been saying that there is a radical wing to the Democratic party, and that this radical wing hates the foundations of America. They are Marxist to their core and want to shred the Constitution and remake the United States according to their Marxist ideal. These people are hungry and angry, and extremely determined. Many of us have also been saying that this radical wing now has control of the Democrat party, and that Barack Obama is the face of their movement.

I think what you’re seeing here is the realization by some in the Democratic party that there’s truth to this statement. Don’t be confused here. Clinton and Booker are lefties through and through. They believe in social justice, abortion on demand, and most of the other things you see as part of the Democratic party platform.

But, they’re not America haters. They love America. They love the free enterprise system, and they’re capitalists at heart, even if they don’t always realize that their goals and intentions fly in the face of free enterprise. Why do you think the Clintons went to New York after they left the White House? They wanted to be where the money is.

They see what Obama has been doing as an attack on free enterprise (which it is), and they’re finally standing up and saying “Enough!” Clinton and Obama have never been the best of friends, and I believe that should Obama lose in November, that this simmering feud is going to boil over. Clinton is going to make a very strong effort to wrest back control of the party and restore it to “his” vision.

You’ll see the results almost immediately if he’s successful. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-08) will lose her leadership position. Blue Dogs will resurface in time for the 2014 elections, and the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee will be very Clintonesque.

On the other hand, if Clinton fails, expect the Democratic party to move even further to the left, regardless of the outcome of the elections in November. Expect them to become even angrier and more shrill. But don’t expect to see a TIME Magazine cover with Pelosi’s picture on the cover and the title “The Politics Of Hate” like you did in 1994 with Newt.

Frankly, as much as I loathe to see these people in power, the latter scenario is probably a better one for America (as long as Obama loses, that is). The more these people expose themselves and their hatred for America’s founding principles, the more it damages the Democratic party. I’m not stupid enough to pull a James Carville and predict a 40 year rule for the GOP, but I do think that a GOP majority is stronger when the differences between them and the left are more striking and visible.

November can’t get here soon enough. Is it really only the first of June?

30 May, 2012

Polling The President-May 2012

It’s that time again. Time for my monthly look at President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) polling figures.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 48.0/47.4. Last month, he was –0.4, today he’s +0.6. That’s barely outside the range of statistical noise, but it is trending the right direction for Obama. And, what I said last month is still true. The good news for the White House is that this number is virtually unchanged over the last several months, and even a bit higher than last August.

I’m a little puzzled as I move on to Right Track/Wrong Track. The four most recent polls end on 5/7, 5/7, 5/20, and 5/20. Not terribly recent. But, that’s the data we have to work with. His numbers here are a dismal 33.8/58.5, which is a –24.7 spread. However, this is a slight uptick from last month, and shows a pretty significant gain over the last year. Still, as I said last month, if I’m a political consultant I’m salivating at the opportunity to run against an incumbent President when less than 34% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction.

Next, I move on to the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. May’s report was released yesterday, and is very disappointing for the President. May’s CCI is down to 64.9, which represents a 3.8 point drop from April. The other numbers in the report don’t get any better. Only 13.6 percent of consumers say business conditions are “good”, and only 16.6 percent expect conditions to improve over the next six months. Again, the only good news in this report is that these mid 60s numbers are a whole lot better than the mid 40s numbers from last summer. However, the continuing bad news out of Europe is going to be a drag on Consumer Confidence for a while, regardless of what happens here.

Finally, as promised, it’s time to look at some head-to-head matchups with former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) in the race for the White House. The current RCP average has Obama at 45.7 and Romney at 43.7. There’s good and bad here for both sides. Obama can take solace in the fact that he’s ahead, and that his string of bad polls seems to have abated. Romney can take solace that almost all of these polls are Registered Voter polls which tend to shift Democratic by a net of about 4 points.

Romney should also be happy that 10% of the public remains undecided. Conventional wisdom says that undecideds that break late go to the challenger. But, there’s some recent data that suggests that conventional wisdom may be wrong (late deciders in 2004 went heavy for President George W. Bush (R-USA)). I think a better way to look at it may be that undecideds are closest to “Independents”. So look at how Obama and Romney are polling among Independents to get an idea of how undecideds may go on election day. In just about every poll I’ve seen, Independents are tilted heavily in favor of Romney. This may be the key data point in this year’s election. If the numbers are close (check), and GOP enthusiasm is higher (check), and Indies prefer Romney (check), it’s hard to see how he can lose.

But, until the polls shift to reflect that, we can only go with what we have.

Overall, this is a mixed bag for the President. However, he can definitely point to improvements over the last year. Despite America’s obvious displeasure with Obama and our economic situation, an incumbent with an improving economy (even if the improvement is spotty and weak, or even imaginary) is hard to defeat. NFL owners rarely fire 7-9 coaches, particularly if they were 5-11 the year before. NFL owners fire 5-11 coaches who made the playoffs the year before. If none of these numbers change, I’d give Obama a slight edge in November. Romney’s going to have to move the needle. It looks like he should be able to do so, but he hasn’t yet, and the clock is ticking.

23 May, 2012

CBO Says We’re Between a Rock And a Hard Place

Interesting report released yesterday by the CBO. While it still depends heavily upon the static analysis that I’ve criticized so often in the past, it does still show the hard choices we’re going to have to make in the very near future.

In short, the report says that if the Bush tax cuts expire on January 1, then we will have a short recession in 2013. I think they’re optimistic about the length of the recession, especially taking into consideration external factors such as the economic crisis in Europe, but it’s not a pretty picture regardless.

Under those fiscal conditions, which will occur under current law, growth in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in calendar year 2013 will be just 0.5 percent, CBO expects—with the economy projected to contract at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first half of the year and expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second half. Given the pattern of past recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such a contraction in output in the first half of 2013 would probably be judged to be a recession.

However, the CBO says that if the Bush tax cuts are extended, then GDP growth for next year will be around 4.4%. That’s extremely optimistic, considering the current state of the economy and the pace of the “recovery” we’ve had so far. I merely present it as a data point from which to judge the rest of their projections.

Unfortunately, extending the Bush tax cuts is not all sunshine and rainbows, according to the CBO. Since they believe that such an occurrence will limit tax revenue, they see this as a problem down the road. I can’t say it any better than the CBO did, but I will bold some key points:

If all current policies were extended for a prolonged period, federal debt held by the public—currently about 70 percent of GDP, its highest mark since 1950—would continue to rise much faster than GDP.

Such a path for federal debt could not be sustained indefinitely, and policy changes would be required at some point. The more that debt increased before policies were changed, the greater would be the negative consequences—for the nation’s future output and income, for the burden imposed by interest payments on the federal debt, for policymakers’ ability to use tax and spending policies to respond to unexpected challenges, and for the likelihood of a sudden fiscal crisis. And the longer the necessary adjustments in policies were delayed, the more uncertain individuals and businesses would be about future government policies, and the more drastic the ultimate changes in policy would need to be.

The CBO is going to keep hammering this home (and so will I), until someone other than Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI-01) gets it. The economic path President Barack Obama (D-USA) has put us on leads to financial ruin. And we are very far down the path. Every day we delay doing something about it a) makes it harder to solve, and b) makes the required solutions more drastic.

Now, the CBO thinks that we can avoid this financial ruin by raising taxes. But, unless we can raise taxes to 30% of GDP without destroying the economy (we can’t), then the CBO is wrong. We may need to raise taxes. But we absolutely need to lower spending. And, until we commit to doing the latter, there’s no point in even considering the former.

One final point: politicians, regardless of party, who are ignoring this problem or pretending it doesn’t exist are endangering the future of America. These people must be stopped. Quickly. This is what the elections this November are all about. It’s very simple. You can either vote for America, or against it. The time to choose is now.

09 May, 2012

Indiana Primary Postmortem

I’m happy today. Neither of Congressman Dan Burton’s (R-IN-05) nor Senator Dick Lugar’s (R-IN) names will appear on my ballot this November. In addition, after I agonized over whom to support in IN-05, I finally selected Susan Brooks, and she won. She’ll be a good Congresswoman. Jackie Walorski won her primary in IN-02, and I think she will likely win in November as well. People not from IN are going to be amazed by this woman if she makes it to Washington, DC. Watch out.

But enough about that. Let’s think about what happened and what it means. I want you to mull over some facts for a minute. We had no statewide ballot initiatives that would affect primary turnout significantly for either side. President Barack Obama (D-USA) ran unopposed, and I think we’re all finally in agreement that former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) has sown up the Republican nomination. For Governor, both the Democrat and the Republican ran unopposed. There may have been somewhat of an uptick on the GOP side for the the Lugar/Mourdock Senate race. There were about 400,000 votes in GOP Pres primary in 2008, and closer to 600,000 this year. But in 2008, operation CHAOS was in full swing. Former Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) almost won IN, where there were over 1.2 million votes cast in the Dem primary. So, it appears that neither the GOP nor the Democrats should have had any kind of significant “built-in” enthusiasm edge. I’ll give you a slight one for the GOP, but I don’t think it’s huge.

So, comparing apples to apples, then:

Governor race:

Candidate Votes
Mike Pence (R) 530,384
John R Gregg (D) 202,186

Even if you think there was an edge for GOP voters, you’d have to convince yourself it’s close to 3:1 to be able to spin this as good news for Gregg. This is a brutal looking result for the Democrats. Hard to imagine that Pence is not going to be our next Governor.

Presidential Race:

Candidate Votes
Mitt Romney (R) 398,188
Barack Obama (D) 216,128
Ron Paul (R) 95,467
Rick Santorum (R) 82,620
Newt Gingrich (R) 39,769

 

Obama did a tick better than Gregg. Basically, it looks like we can set the bar at around 225,000 for Dem voters (and that’s probably on the high side) in this primary, and about 615,000 for GOP voters.

But, I said earlier there was little to no “built-in” enthusiasm edge. Yes. That means there was no intrinsic reason based on the ballots themselves for either side to have a big advantage over the other.  The 3:1 edge we’re looking at here is the result of an extrinsic enthusiasm gap. It appears to show that GOP voters in IN are much more enthusiastic about this election than Dem voters. This will likely carry over to November. I think we can write off IN as a swing state for the White House. It won’t be blue this time.

Finally, there’s the Senate race. I’m going to spend a bit of time talking about this:

Candidate Votes
Richard E. Mourdock 387,982
Richard G. Lugar 256,108
Joe Donnelly 202,320

 

Donnelly did about as well as Gregg and Obama. And 50,000 votes worse than Lugar, who lost to Mourdock by over 125,000 votes. Again, this is not a good sign for Donnelly.

But the Democrats have a plan.

As I said yesterday, we’re a purple to red state here. We think of ourselves as conservatives, but also centrist. That’s why we had Senators like Dick Lugar (R-IN) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) for many years. The IN Dems will try very hard to paint Mourdock as an extremist and Donnelly as the centrist willing to cross the aisle.

It’s going to be a hard sell. Donnelly is a little bit of a Blue Dog Democrat, only voting with Dems 69% of the time in his term. But, Mourdock will be quick to point out that in every single key vote, Donnelly sided with his Democrat brethren and against Indiana. He voted for ObamaCare. He voted against ObamaCare repeal. He voted against the GOP budget. He voted in favor of the Senate Payroll tax bill. He voted against debt reduction. He voted against defunding NPR. In short, every time he could have voted to save Hoosiers money, he voted the other direction. Frankly, of the two, Mourdock seems more likely to be the one to cross the aisle on a vote where his vote might matter.

Honestly, the IN Dems have to be kicking themselves this morning. There’s no doubt that Lugar’s loss gives them an opening. Centrists are now in play, and we have a lot of them here. But Donnelly is an exceptionally weak candidate. He’s a two-term Congressman, that wasn’t likely to be re-elected (he would’ve been facing a rematch against a better funded and better organized Jackie Walorski). They never really thought that Lugar would be defeated, and Donnelly was the only person they could find willing to run against him.

But, facing what looks like a GOP headwind in November, at least in IN, Donnelly has a big challenge. There’s six months to go, and you never know who’s going to make the key mistake in a campaign, but it’s hard to see Donnelly coming out on top right now.

UPDATE: Earlier version of this post had stated incorrectly that Donnelly was a one-term Congressman. He has served two terms. My mistake.

08 May, 2012

Memo: If You’re Not Fighting the War in Social Media, You’re Losing It

I’m going to pick on @indgop on Twitter for a bit, but not because I don’t appreciate IN’s GOP, but because they need to get better at dealing with social media. And I’m sure they’re far from the only ones.

I follow most of the big political players on both sides of the aisle. So, I follow @RNC, and @BarackObama for example. I like to know get the straight scoop not just form my side, but from the opposition as well. That way I see how they’re using social media, and learn how to combat their spin with truth. So, of course, here in IN, I also follow @INDems and @indgop.

@indgop is the official Twitter account for the Indiana Republican Party.  Currently, @indgop has 1,386 tweets, 3,015 followers, and is following 1,909 (I’m one of those 1909. Thanks for following). They have tweeted 21 times so far in the month of May. In the month of April, they tweeted 36 times. @indgop tweets so infrequently that I’ve had to check several times to make sure that I’m still following them. That’s not a good thing.

Indiana is a purple to red state. We voted for President Barack Obama (D-USA), but in 2010 rode the Republican wave and elected a 2nd GOP Senator, and increased the GOP U.S. House delegation as well. We have a GOP governor, but have often had Democrat ones, and up until recently have generally had 1 GOP Senator and 1 Dem Senator.

So, let’s compare @indgop to @INDems, the official Twitter account of the Indiana Democrat Party. Despite being in a red-ish state, @INDems has more followers, at 3,512. Now, they follow far fewer, a mere 319, but have tweeted over twice as many times, 2,903. So far in May, they have tweeted 87 times. That’s in 8 days. In the last 38 days, @indgop has only tweeted 57 times.

If you’re not fighting the war, you’re losing.

There’s no reason @indgop should be behind @INDems in either tweets or followers. There are far more conservatives in IN than libs, and there should be more for @indgop to tweet about as well. We have the Governor’s mansion, both chambers of the General Assembly, both U.S. Senators, and 6 of 9 of Indiana’s Congressmen are Republican. And, while it’s not a state level position, the mayor of Indianapolis is also a Republican.

I RT @INDems several times a day. A lot of their tweets are not party related, but simple things like reminder’s about today’s primary. I can’t remember the last time I RT’d something from @indgop. Given my political leanings, I would much prefer it was the other way around. But, if I see something useful, I’m going to RT it, no matter who it comes from.

Here’s the problem with this. If I RT @INDems, and others do as well, that will help them gain followers. They already have more than @indgop. And gaining followers will help them get out their message for their actual party tweets. Now, maybe right now in IN it doesn’t really matter. We won’t be giving our electoral votes to Obama this time around. And Mike Pence is going to be the Governor next year. And we’ll still have two GOP Senators from IN next year, regardless of what happens in the primary today.

But, @INDems is playing the long game. They’re not thinking just about 2012, but about 2014 and 2016. They’re laying the ground work for it now. And, who knows, maybe they’ll get lucky, and pull off an upset somewhere even this year. But, come 2014 & 2016, when things maybe aren’t so bright for the GOP in IN, @indgop is going to be behind. And once you’re behind in social media, it’s very hard to catch up.

Make no mistake. It may not happen here in IN, but social media will play a role in this year’s election, and may very well be the deciding factor in some elections by 2014 & 2016. If your state or local organization is behind here, you need to work with them to catch up.

Unemployment Will Be 7.9% On Election Day

Probably even lower.

President Barack Obama (D-USA) and his team feel that this is the magic number that will guarantee them victory. There are several adages about unemployment and Presidential elections. At least one of them will likely be proven false this year. Here are a few that I know of:

  • No incumbent President since FDR has been re-elected when unemployment is higher than 7.3% on election day.
  • No incumbent President has failed to be re-elected when unemployment is lower than 8% on election day
  • No incumbent President has failed to be re-elected when unemployment has fallen in the last 24 months prior to election day.

The causality part of the third will likely be true. Unemployment was 9.5% on November 6, 2010. Unless there’s a complete collapse, or the BLS suddenly starts telling us the truth, unemployment will not be that high.

In fact, it’s clear from the last quarter that the BLS is gaming the numbers to help Obama. They’re working to make the second adage go in his favor. They want to get unemployment down under 8% on election day. If you think I’m just a tinfoil hatter, and I’ve gone off the deep end, let me remind you:

  • Getting unemployment down to 8.1% required eliminating 522,000 people from the workforce in one month.
  • This was after eliminating 333,000 people from the workforce the month before to get it down to 8.2%.

The April report had 506,000 fewer people working than the February report, and yet unemployment was 0.2% lower. Someone is gaming the numbers. I state this as an absolute fact.

So, if we take that as a given, and also take it as a given that they’re going to continue to game the numbers until unemployment is under 8%, what does that mean?

After adjustments, the BLS increases civilian population by roughly 305,000 every month. To get this number I took April 2012’s numbers and subtracted April 2011’s. Then I divided by 13. Now, this number isn’t consistent. Last month it was only about 180,000, for example. That’s why I wanted an average over 13 months.

The other thing to be aware of is that the BLS has artificially lowered the labor force participation rate to 63.6%. This number represents the percentage of people in the United States that the BLS believes either has a job, or wants one. The BLS has lowered that by .6% over the last six months.

If we take these numbers as predictive of the next six months, what does that give us as possibilities for election day? I looked at job growth figures of 150,000 per month, 125,000 per month, and 100,000 per month.

Here are the results:

Add’l jobs per month Labor force Participation Rate Not in labor force Unemployment Rate
100,000 63.6% 89,040,000 8.4%
100,000 63.3% 89,773,000 8.0%
100,000 63.2% 90,018,000 7.8%
125,000 63.6% 89,040,000 8.3%
125,000 63.4% 89,529,000 8.0%
125,000 63.3% 89,773,000 7.9%
150,000 63.6% 89,040,000 8.3%
150,000 63.5% 89,284,000 8.1%
150,000 63.4% 89,529,000 7.9%

 

Even at a measly 100,000 jobs created per month, the BLS only has to lower the participation rate from it’s current 63.6% to 63.2% to get unemployment below 8%. At 150,000 per month, they only have to go to 63.4%.

But they can make an even bigger impact, if they desire. The last six months, the participation rate dropped 0.6%. There’s nothing keeping them from doing that again. At 150,000 if they dropped the participation rate all the way down to 63%, unemployment would be at 7.4%. If they’re willing to go all the way down to 63%, they can hit an unemployment number of 7.7% with a mere 50,000 jobs added each month. In fact, they can get it to 7.9% if only 10,000 jobs are created per month.

You think it won’t happen? Just watch. But on November 6th, I’m going to be saying “I told you so.”

This will be another post that I will update monthly as the election nears.

04 May, 2012

And The Coveted Chris of Rights Endorsement Goes To…

…no one.

I sincerely doubt anyone covets my endorsement, and I don’t really feel like I should endorse anyone, in any event. I will tell you who I’m going to be voting for in IN’s May 8th primary, and why.

For U.S. President, I’m actually still unsure. I am pretty sure that I’m going to vote for former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). I know he’s going to be the nominee, and I’ve long since decided I can support him and vote for him in November. But I may still vote for someone else in the primary, just to remind him that I expect him to govern from the right. I will probably vote for Mitt, but I may change my mind at the last moment.

For U.S. Senator, my choice is clear, but not as clear as I’d like. I’ve had issues with Senator Lugar (R-IN) since around 2003. I had to hold my nose and vote for him in 2006, and hoped that it would be the last time. So, I’m definitely voting for Richard Mourdock. Still, this is sadly a “lesser of two evils” vote. I’m nowhere near as enamored with Mourdock as most of the rest of my Tea Party brethren. I’ve been watching him for months, and I am just not sure I believe he truly means everything he says. I think the best we can hope for from Mourdock is that he becomes a reliable conservative vote in the Senate, and otherwise disappears. It seems to me that if he’s making news on Capitol Hill, it’s more likely to be the negative variety. I would really love to be wrong about him. Time will tell.

For U.S. Representative Congressional District 5, again the choice is a little murky. Representative Dan Burton (R-IN-05) announced his retirement in January. This was met with muted celebration. To say that Burton had lost popularity back home would be a huge understatement. Eight people have thrown their hats into the ring on the Republican side to be his replacement. I don’t think anyone knows for sure what’s going to happen here. The only thing that’s a near certainty is that the winner of this primary will be our new Congressman/Congresswoman. I don’t even know who is running on the Democrat side, but it would be a minor miracle if they won. Former Congressman David McIntosh (R-IN-02) is the odds on favorite, I guess. He’s got lots of name recognition, having been a Congressman before, and even having been the GOP nominee for Governor in 2000. He’s got the support of the NRA, the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, and the Indiana Right to Life. Still, as a prior Congressman, and prior gubernatorial nominee, he’s hardly  the “fresh new blood” that most of us have been hoping for. And he’s got residency issues, much like Senator Lugar. After careful consideration, I’ve decided not to vote for McIntosh. Of the remaining seven, I like Susan Brooks the best. She’s energetic. She has strong fiscal and social conservative credentials, and she seems like she’ll work hard for CD5. I think she has a steep hill to climb to beat McIntosh, but anything is possible. She could easily finish anywhere from first to fourth in the race, I think. We’ll just have to see how it all turns out.

I won’t bore you with the rest of the down ballot races. There are a couple that I’m still mulling over, but none of them are likely to make national or even statewide news in 2012.

30 April, 2012

Polling the President-April 2012

I haven’t done this in over 6 months, so it’s definitely time to restart this. This is my monthly look at how well or poorly President Barack Obama (D-USA) is polling.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 47.6/48.0. This is a bad number for the President, but it’s not terrible. People have been re-elected many times with sub 50 on their approval. And if this was the worst number for the President, it would be causing some mild concern from the White House, but no major fears. The good news is that this number is virtually unchanged over the last several months, and even a bit higher than last August.

Unfortunately, for the White House, that’s the bright spot in his numbers. Right Track/Wrong Track for the country is at 32/60.8. Again, the President can take some solace in the fact that it was far worse six months ago. But, if I’m a political consultant, I’m salivating at the opportunity to run against an incumbent President when only 32% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction.

Finally, I take a peek at the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. The CCI for April is 69.2. Again, this is a big improvement over the mid-40s he was looking at last summer, and it’s in the ballpark of Obama’s all time high (70.4 from 2/2011). But it’s also a long way from the 90 rating that’s considered “healthy”. If unemployment numbers and GDP numbers released in the last few weeks are any guide, CCI will be lower next month, as well.

Starting next month, I will likely include some head-to-head numbers with former Governor Mitt Romney (R-USA). April seems a bit early for that though. Eventually, I’ll include battleground states as well, and start doing this more frequently, but likely not until sometime this summer.

23 April, 2012

If I Wanted America To Fail…

I tweeted about this a couple times this weekend, and it’s been making the blogger rounds. If you haven’t watched this video, please do so. If you have, and think that it’s silly that yet another blogger is posting it, well too bad. I like to keep links to these things for later reference.

09 April, 2012

Obama By the Numbers

 

Lately, I’ve been curious about where we are and where we’re headed. I thought it’d be fun to compare today with January, 2009, but also with November, 2008, since that’s when so many of you decided it was a good idea to elect a know-nothing ideologue as President of the United States.

So, are you better off than you were four years ago? Let’s go to the tape.

Real Estate:

National Median Home Value (inflation adjusted $)

Now January, 2009 November, 2008
$157,000 $178,914 $191,975

Note that the peek median home value was $279,001 in Q2/2006, and the current value of $157,000 is the bottom.

Stocks (DJIA):

Now January, 23, 2009 November 7, 2008

12,918.99

8,077.56

8,943.81

Ok, gotta be liking that if you have a lot of money tied up in the stock market.

But is it real, or is it fake? DJIA isn’t indexed against anything. Has your stock value gone up, or has the value of your dollar just gone down?

Some people like to look at the Dow vs. Gold. This is the DJIA represented in ounces of gold.

Now January, 2009 November, 2008

8.01

8.7

10.84

So, the value of the Dow vs. gold continues to decline. Lest anyone accuse me of cherry picking data to make President Barack Obama (D-USA) look bad, it’s worth pointing out that the Dow vs. gold index has been in near steady decline since late 1999, when it peaked at about 42 ounces.

Some people criticize the Dow vs. gold index. I happen to like it, but perhaps the Dow vs. inflation is better

Now January 23, 2009 November 7, 2008

12,918.99

8,379.25

9,423.67

Inflation has been relatively under control (at least the way it’s measured today) over the last few years, and the Dow has made a 4,000 point leap. So, even inflation indexed, it looks pretty good. Ok, so one check mark in Obama’s favor.

Price of Gas:

Now January 19, 2009 November 3, 2008

$3.907/gal

$1.85/gal

$2.40/gal

Well, that speaks for itself.

Jobs:

Numbers are from reports released in April, 2012, February, 2009, and November, 2008. I used the “not seasonally adjusted” section, because I think when you’re talking about things like workforce participation and number of employed persons that it’s wrong to use anything other than absolute values. Also, since I don’t completely understand how the “seasonal adjustments” are calculated, I don’t trust the numbers. The numbers aren’t substantially different using the seasonally adjusted numbers, however.

  Now January, 2009 November, 2008
Unemployment Rate

8.4%

8.5%

6.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate

14.5%

13.9%

11.8%

Labor Force Participation

64.2%

65.4%

66.1%

Employment-population ratio

58.5%

59.8%

62.0%

# Employed

139,764,000

140,436,000

145,543,000

# Unemployed

12,904,000

13,009,000

9,469,000

# Not in labor force

88,288,000

81,293,000

79,601,000

# wanting job

6,041,000

5,866,000

4,800,000

Median Household income (inflation adjusted)

$49,777

$51,768
(from Sept, 2009 report)

$52,801

 

Ok, the only numbers on that chart that look like improvement for the President are that unemployment has dropped a whopping .1% from January, 2009 to now, and the number of unemployed persons has fallen 105,000 from January, 2009. Those are not impressive changes and more than offset by the fact that 6,995,000 more people are not counted as part of the work force, and that there are 175,000 more people looking for a job. And the numbers are even worse when you compare to November, 2008, which is when you decided that putting a neophyte with no plan in the White House was a good idea.

I’ll update this post periodically between now and election day. Probably not monthly, but fairly regularly.

29 March, 2012

Intemperate Thought of the Day

Ok, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum supporters, this one is directed at you.

What thing has happened in the last three years that makes you think having a legislator with no executive experience in the White House is a good idea?

Sorry. I’m not going to be elected President of the Mitt Romney fan club any time soon, but supporting anyone else at this point suggests mental health issues.

28 March, 2012

ObamaCare: What Happens Next?

I’ve been giving this some thought the last couple of days and I wanted to put it down. I’ve even moved it ahead of some of my backlog on blog posts, but don’t worry, I’ll get to the others.

As I’m sure you’re aware of by now, the Supreme Court of the United States is hearing oral arguments on the constitutionality of ObamaCare this week. Since they’re doing this, it’s worth a minute to consider what happens next in the various scenarios. The first scenario is that SCOTUS might punt on the issue altogether because the states don’t have standing to take up the case against a tax that hasn’t been levied yet. Since this doesn’t appear at all likely, I’m going to ignore that option.

So, here are the others.

SCOTUS upholds the law in its entirety.

I still consider this the most likely option. I’ll say there’s a 45% chance of this happening. Obviously, if this happens, our efforts must turn to repeal. Having former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) on the Presidential ticket will not make that any easier, but the bigger hurdle will be the stamp of approval by SCOTUS. In fact, Romney has gotten pretty good at making the case that what he did in MA is entirely different than what the President has done. Still, if this happens, we must take control of Congress and the White House. November becomes a harder climb, but an extremely necessary one.

SCOTUS finds just the individual mandate unconstitutional.

This is the second most likely option, at about 40%. In the past, many have pointed out that Congress neglected to add the “severability clause” to the health care bill. Congress puts that in laws to protect themselves from SCOTUS overreach, by saying that if SCOTUS finds one part of a law unconstitutional, that the rest of the law is still valid. So, one of the theories has been that since Congress left this out of the bill, that the whole law goes down in flames if SCOTUS finds any part of it unconstitutional. However, that does not appear to be the case. SCOTUS has generally taken the severability clause as implied lately, and it’s likely they will do so again, in this case. However, the court may decide (correctly in my view) that the mandate is the cornerstone of the law, and that the law can not stand without it. I’ll cover that one later.

Assuming they decide to break up the law, it’s going to be left in shambles. The CBO will be forced to rescore the law, and the new score will not be pretty. Supporters of the mandate, citizen and company, will be screaming to have this addressed. The next Congress and the next President will have to rewrite the law from scratch. November now becomes absolutely huge. For both sides. This might be just the thing to motivate Dems to get out and vote in November. And don’t think that if the GOP can hold the House while the Dems hold the Senate and White House that Speaker John Boehner (R-OH-08) will be able to do much. He’s not going to be able to direct his caucus to just vote no on everything. The law will have to be rewritten. Doing nothing in this case is possibly worse than doing something. This is the ugliest of all possible scenarios. Welcome back to summer of 2009!

SCOTUS finds other pieces, such as the Medicaid Mandate, unconstitutional.

There’s maybe a 10% chance of this happening. I really think that if the court gets to here that they toss the whole law. I don’t think it’s possible that they uphold the individual mandate and yet toss the Medicaid mandate. I also don’t see how the law can stand if both are gone. Politically, this scenario isn’t all that different from the one above. While I think it’s easier to rewrite the law without the Medicaid mandate than without the individual one, the effects of this are felt everywhere. This situation might help Romney a bit because it goes to his strength in this argument, states rights and economics. The Medicaid mandate really puts a huge financial burden on the states. I think losing this one would be an emotional blow to the liberals, rather than a cause to rally behind.

SCOTUS tosses the whole law out.

I give about a 5% chance of this happening. Now, it may happen in a multitude of different ways. The court may decide that the whole law is an overreach and needs to go away. They might just decide that the individual mandate is the problem, and punish Congress for neglecting the severability clause. Or they might decide that even though it’s just the individual mandate, that the law crumbles to pieces if it’s removed. They might make a similar argument about the Medicaid mandate. If both are found unconstitutional, they might look at the law and say “what else is there?” None of these options are at all likely, but all together the odds might be up around 5%, and worth discussing. Obviously, this is the best case scenario for ObamaCare opponents. The law’s destroyed, and it’s not going to be brought back by the next Congress, no matter who’s in charge. It’ll be dead for a generation. It’s good for Romney because he’ll be able to campaign and not worry about RomneyCare. And it’s almost certainly going to leave the Democrat base dispirited. The only question is whether the Republican base would be motivated, or whether they’d feel like they’d earned a rest after that.

So, 45% chance SCOTUS does nothing and 55% chance they knock down the law, at least in part.

If you were thinking that you might sit out November’s elections, expunge that thought. Your vote is definitely going to be needed.

UPDATE: I meant to mention earlier why I believe a complete overturn is unlikely. This court seems to prefer to make its rulings as narrow as possible. A broad ruling that the entire law should be thrown out does not fit the profile. Also, the Supremes are very much aware of their role in the three branches of government. And very much aware that a complete overturn of this law would likely be seen as equivalent to a declaration of war on the Legislative and Executive branches. Not saying it’s impossible. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

24 March, 2012

Obama’s Campaign Theme–Distraction

President Barack Obama (D-USA) is campaigning for re-election. That’s not news. He’s been doing so for a year now. However, I’ve recently noticed a pattern to his methods.

To get a full sense of the pattern, you have to watch the entire campaign team in action. This includes Media Matters, ThinkProgress, the Associated Press, NBC et al. Even Public Policy Polling has gotten into the act.

None of these people want to talk about the economy, unless it’s one of those rare weeks where there’s actual good news. None of these people want to talk about the mountain of debt we’re accumulating. No one wants to talk about gas prices. None want to compare our situation to Greece or the rest of the EuroZone. And, most especially, no one wants to talk about the ever increasing cost of ObamaCare.

You can’t blame them, of course. If my hero was Barack Obama, I wouldn’t want to talk about any of these things either.

And that’s why they’re talking about anything else they can find, etch-a-sketches, Trayvon Martin, Rush Limbaugh, contraception, field trips for the first children, birthers, the religion of the President, etc. Even if some of these make their hero look bad, they know that they can spin it to make the right look worse. The way they tell it, it’s the right wasting all of everyone’s time constantly talking about these things instead of “what’s important” (of course, “what’s important” is always a vague, or implied thing, as they don’t want to actually talk about “what’s important”).

And, you notice they haven’t picked just one thing. That was their habit in the past. Instead now they’re hitting the right with a new thing every day, and from a new angle or two every day. The goal is to keep the right off message, and to make us look foolish.

Frankly, this is just a variation on Cloward-Piven, used as a messaging system. They’re trying to overwhelm the right, leaving us unfocused and off-balance until we collapse upon ourselves.

So far, their tactic appears to be working. We’re falling for it.

But, they still have a couple aces up their sleeve. Watch for them. I mentioned one last week, gay marriage, and it’s already popped up. The other ace, they hope, is Israel.

Obama knows he’s in trouble with the Jews. He also knows that without overwhelming Jewish support, he could be in trouble in November. He also knows that Netanyahu has an itchy trigger finger, and has just about run out of patience with Iran. On a personal level, Obama would love nothing better than to see Israel wiped off the map by the Iranians. Of course, he can’t say that publicly, but actions speak louder than words, and the part of the Jewish community that’s been paying attention realizes this.

How then to dupe the Jews again has been one of the biggest questions for Obama’s team. But now they think they have figured it out. This is how they’re hoping this will play out. Watch for it. They’re going to keep scrambling publicly and privately to keep the tensions between Iran and Israel at a low boil all through the spring and as much of the summer as possible. They can’t let it go to a full boil, but they don’t want it to die down either.

Then, in late summer, they figure they can let it bubble over into a shooting war. Obama will quite publicly decry the violence from both sides, but make a strong public show of working with Netanyahu and supporting him, while privately dragging his feet and doing nothing of substance. They think this public display will be enough to mollify the American Jews long enough to get them to come out and vote in November. Then, by Thanksgiving, watch the re-elected Obama voice his opinion that Netanyahu has become impossible to deal with, and blame him for the degenerating situation, saying that it’s out of our control now and there’s nothing we can do.

This whole thing has a double purpose, not only does it get the Jewish vote back in his favor (they hope), but the Isreal-Iran conflict would once again be a distraction from all the things that Team Obama doesn’t want to talk about.

As I said in Twitter this week, Obama’s campaign can best be summed up in that single word: distraction.

Don’t be distracted. Don’t get off message. Hit Team Obama where it hurts, not where they want you to hit. This is the message to everyone on the right, from #tcot to former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA), to Rush Limbaugh, to Sarah Palin, and to NRO.

The good news is that the right can use this method too, and we have more effective tools at our disposal than the left does. If we use them correctly.

That’s for a future post.

19 March, 2012

Serious Question: Why Would You Vote For Obama?

 

I assume if you’re planning on voting for President Barack Obama (D-USA) in 2012, that you voted for him in 2008. Furthermore, I would hope that your vote in 2008 actually had something to do with what he campaigned on. So, let’s roll the tape, shall we?

Major campaign issues from 2008:

  • The Economy. Well, with now a record 37 months at 8% or higher unemployment, you’d be hard pressed to argue that he’s turned around the economy, despite a $787 billion stimulus package (hey, where’d that money go, btw?)
  • Close Gitmo. Last I checked, Gitmo is still open.
  • Get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan. No. And…no.
  • Maybe you’re a supporter of gay marriage. Well, how much progress has been made here by the Obama administration? Err…none. In point in fact, I do expect Obama to make a serious push on this front later this year, closer to November. But remember, from January 2009 to January 2011, Obama had both chambers of Congress in his pocket. He could’ve passed anything he wanted to pass related to gay marriage. In a snap. But he didn’t. Remember this post when something doesn’t pass this year and he blames it on the Republicans. If you don’t, I will. And I’ll remind you. Again.
  • High gas prices. Ooops.
  • The federal deficit and exploding debt. He was going to cut the deficit in half. Last Thursday, Obama passed President George W. Bush’s deficit total. It took him 38 months to pass Bush’s 96 months of out of control spending. Yes, the economy exacerbated that. But I’ve discussed this before. And, surely, if that matters to you, then you’re upset about the fact that our credit rating has been downgraded? And you’re upset about the Democrats failure to pass a budget? But wait, that’s not Obama’s fault, you say! Well, is he, or is he not the leader of the Democrat party? If he pressured Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) to pass a budget, would one get passed? Bet the farm on it.
  • Improve race relations. Well, I think we can all agree that hasn’t happened. And isn’t going to as long as that racist thug runs the Department of Justice.
  • Tax cuts for 95 percent of working families. Never happened.
  • No new taxes for middle class. Well, sure, as long as you don’t count cigarettes, healthcare, or don’t own a small business.
  • Improve foreign relations, particularly with the Middle East. Based on this search, that doesn’t appear to have happened.
  • He did get ObamaCare passed, but let’s be honest with ourselves. This is not the law that even liberals wanted or were promised. It costs more, does less, and pretty much ensures that every single conservative criticism is going to come true.

Did I miss something? Did something really, you know, awesomely awesome occur in the last 3 years? Or are you just too stupid to realize that the man is a liar who hates America, wants to destroy it, and will say anything to get your vote?