Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts

04 November, 2021

This Is the Standard Left Playbook

If you disagree with the Left, you’re racist, or stupid, or crazy, or just making stuff up.

You couldn’t possibly disagree with them because they’re wrong, and because you want to protect your family.

‘What Is Phony Exactly?’: Dan Crenshaw Hammers Obama For Dismissing Parents’ ‘Fake Outrage’ At Public Schools | The Daily Wire

What did former President Barack Obama (D-USA) say that got him into trouble?

“He’s accusing schools of brainwashing our kids,” Obama remarked.

“Here we are trying to recover from a global pandemic that has killed more than 700,000 Americans, that has shut down thousands of small businesses and put millions out of work. We don’t have time to be wasting on these phony, trumped-up culture wars, this fake outrage, the right-wing media’s pedals to juice their ratings,” Obama later said. “And the fact that he’s willing to go along with it? Instead of talking about serious problems that affect serious people? That’s a shame. That’s not what this election is about. That’s not what you need, Virginia.”

Oh yeah. That.

Critics slammed former President Barack Obama after he suggested that recent anger against school administrators in Virginia was due to “trumped-up culture wars.”

“What is phony exactly? The school rape coverup or Terry McAuliffe saying parents shouldn’t be involved in their child’s education? Shameless gaslighting to prop up a candidate the left knows is in serious trouble,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) said.

“Virginia public schools have pushed critical race theory in the classroom, suppressed concerned parents at school board meetings, and covered up for a gender-fluid sexual predator, who allegedly raped two innocent girls,” the Manhattan Institute’s Christopher Rufo replied.

Yeah, that’s about right. Look, this isn’t fake. These are real issues. And the Democrats are on the wrong side of them. Mocking people for believing otherwise isn’t going to make the issue go away, and it’s not likely to win you any votes either.

Obama would have been better off keeping his big mouth shut.

18 October, 2021

Even Obama Isn’t Allowed to Criticize Clueless Joe

He gets hit by the ABC censors.

ABC Omits Obama Comment Calling Open Borders 'Unsustainable' (mediaite.com)

D’oh!

Fox News’ Jacqui Heinrich drew attention to ABC News on Tuesday for editing an interview with former President Barack Obama to omit his assessment that open borders were “unsustainable.”

“Immigration is tough,” Obama told Good Morning America in a portion of the interview that was cut from television but quoted in the 12th paragraph of a story on ABC’s website. “It always has been because, on the one hand, I think we are naturally a people that wants to help others. … At the same time, we’re a nation state. We have borders. The idea that we can just have open borders is something that … as a practical matter, is unsustainable.”

The Border Crisis is intentional.

But someone forgot to tell Barack that. Either that or he’s actually smart enough to realize it’s a stupid idea.

For once, I’ll give Barack the benefit of the doubt.

11 April, 2021

Impossible: Obama Told Us These Jobs Were Never Coming Back

He was talking about Trump at the time.

“When somebody says like the person you just mentioned who I’m not going to advertise for, that he’s going to bring all these jobs back. Well how exectly are you going to do that? What are you going to do? There’s uh-uh no answer to it. He just says. “I’m going to negotiate a better deal.” Well how? How exactly are you going to negotiate that? What magic wand do you have? And usually the answer is, he doesn’t have an answer.

U.S. manufacturing sector index races to 37-year high in March: ISM | Reuters

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday its index of national factory activity jumped to a reading of 64.7 last month from 60.8 in February. That was the highest level since December 1983.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy.

What. An. Idiot.

So, wait…this means that Trump was right. Again.

And Democrats were wrong. Again.

Good thing we got rid of Trump. Just think of what he might have done for the economy given another four years.

28 February, 2021

I Think this is Unfair, But I May be Biased

Report: Nikki Haley Isolated After Attacking Trump, Not Among GOP 2024 Presidential Hopefuls At CPAC (lifezette.com)

As conservatives gather for their annual conference known as CPAC, Nikki Haley will not be among the possible 2024 GOP contenders in attendance, with speculation that her rivalry with Donald Trump being a contributing factor.

According to one report, Haley is “isolated” after she attacked President Trump for the January 6 Capitol riot.

This comes in the aftermath last week of the former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. asking for a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Her request was turned down.

It wasn’t the case in years gone by that we required our political leaders to be in lock-step agreement with each other. I like Nikki Haley. I don’t agree with everything she’s said or done, but that’s true of everyone.

Her comments about Trump were not that inflammatory. She basically said that he went too far in his protestations about the election. An overwhelming majority of Americans believe that.

But disagreeing with Trump, particularly on the election is a quick way to be exiled in the Republican Party right now. I have criticized Rep. Liz Cheney (R-MT-AL) for that, but her comments and actions go far beyond what Haley has done or said.

We used to call this “staking a claim” or “establishing an identity” when politicians distanced themselves from some actions or statements by previous administrations. Now it’s heresy.

This is a bad thing. Republicans rightly criticized Democrats for their “cult of personality” around President Barack Obama (D-USA), and Democrats are now right to make the came criticisms of Trump voters.

We have to be about what is right and what is wrong and not about who is saying it.

The message is much more important than the messenger. Or it should be. I’m not convinced it really has been true since mid 2008.

04 February, 2021

“You will Pay the Price. You won’t Know What Hit You”

Now that’s incitement. I’d even say it’s possibly worthy of impeachment. However, it wasn’t President Donald Trump (R-USA) who said it. It was Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). And he said it to two sitting Supreme Court Justices.

“Incitement,” then and now | Power Line (powerlineblog.com)

I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.

Remember, Trump is being impeached over telling his supporters “if you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore”. That’s typical political speak. Politicians tell their supporters to fight all the time. President Barack Obama (D-USA) told his supporters to “get up in their faces” and also who could forget (he’s from Chicago after all), “if they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun”.

I don’t recall either of these Democrats being impeached.

Trump’s impeachment II is even more of a farce than the first one was.

01 February, 2021

My Dad Can Ride Amtrak—Thanks to Trump

I wonder if he knows?

Thanks to Trump DOJ, Amtrak no longer discriminates against the disabled | Power Line (powerlineblog.com)

It’s an article of faith among Democrats that the Trump administration did not enforce America’s civil rights laws. It’s also nonsense.

As I have demonstrated, under President Trump the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, led by Eric Dreiband, vigorously enforced federal civil rights laws on behalf of all groups protected by these laws. The evidence is here.

For example, the Obama administration wasn’t interested in taking action against Amtrak, even though that railroad failed to meet its obligation to provide proper access for the disabled to its stations. Under the law, Amtrak had until 2010 to comply with the Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA), which was passed in 1990. It failed to do so.

So in 2016 when a college student named Thomas Morgan, who uses a wheelchair, wanted to visit his family, he found that the Amtrak station in the town where he attended school was inaccessible. There was no wheelchair access. The only way to board the train was by stairs.

It was the Trump DOJ that finally acted to force Amtrak to comply with the ADA. Following an investigation, it filed suit against the company. As a result, Amtrak reached an agreement with the Justice Department to make stations accessible, as well as to provide training to staff on ADA requirements.

Thanks to that evil President Donald Trump (R-USA).

27 January, 2021

Concerning the Drudge Report

This is part two on my thoughts on FNC and Drudge. You can find part one on FNC here: Chris of Rights: Concerning Fox News

Quoting myself:

There has been much talk about Drudge turning away from the right and Trump in particular in the last year or so. FNC has been the subject of similar criticisms recently, particularly since Election Night 2020.

I’m curious to see what these two will do now that Trump is out of office.

Drudge is a different case than Fox. I have made the case often over the last year that Matt Drudge is not a conservative and never has been one.

Two things drove what appeared on Drudge, and neither have anything to do with conservatism:

  1. Drudge considers himself an old-style muckraker. He looks for the juicy political stories and he goes for splash and sizzle. So, he’s likely to do this no matter who’s in office.
  2. It’s always personal with Drudge, not political. He hates, I mean truly loathes, the Clintons. And he thought the Obamas were arrogant fools.

So, initially Trump was useful to Drudge. He opposed the hated Clinton machine.

If Hillary had won in 2016, I’m certain that the Drudge Report would have attacked her mercilessly for four years.

But she didn’t.

If Hillary had run again in 2020 and gotten the Democratic nomination, I am just as certain that Drudge would once again have been on the Trump train.

But she didn’t.

And it was apparent that she wasn’t likely to do so by 2018. So, once Trump had defeated Clintonism, his usefulness to Drudge ended.

Also, Trump definitely gave Drudge plenty of opportunity to be a muckraker. He was able to link to personal scandal after personal scandal and to articles showing dissent in the Trump administration. Trump himself helped with that with tweets attacking members of his own Cabinet.

Of course, this had the effect of souring Trump on Drudge. And thus began the battle between them. A battle Drudge was determined to win, no matter what the cost to his media empire.

So, that’s how we got here. But what does it mean going forward? It’s hard to say. I don’t think Drudge dislikes President Joe Biden (D-USA) in the same way that he hates the Clintons and the Obamas, or in the way that he grew to hate Trump. But he still has that muckraking instinct, and you see that already a little bit. Going to the page, you’re already starting to see some negative articles regarding the Biden administration. Soft ones so far, but the tone change is apparent.

Of course, there’s still far too many articles attacking Trump. But it’s only been 7 days since he left office. Once this latest impeachment farce is over, perhaps he will leave Trump alone. That might depend upon what Trump does.

I think that you will see the Drudge Report appear to start slowly drifting to the right again. But if Biden can remain somewhat scandal free, the drift might be a slow one.

20 January, 2021

January 20, 2021–The Beginning of the End?

When President Barack Obama (D-USA) was inaugurated, I wished him luck.

I also said this:

I am thrilled that my daughters (now 2 and 5) will grow up in a world where a black man has been elected President. While that is a reason for celebration, a better reason for celebration would be that it’s non-news, and that no one cares whether the President is black or white or green with purple polka-dots. I don’t see that event coming anytime soon, much to my dismay.

Hopefully this does represent a milestone in race relations and a sign that one’s race is unimportant in America. I have my doubts, but will continue to have cautious optimism on that front.

And, since I realize that I never got around to it back in November, congratulations, President Barack Obama (D-USA). Your hard fought campaign and victory has earned my respect and admiration. Keeping them is up to you.

So, while I had my doubts about an Obama Presidency, I tried to find causes for optimism. I did not wish him to fail. I want all Presidents to succeed, if success is defined as improving life in our country.

I had serious doubts about him, most of which turned out to be justified. But on this day, 12 years ago, I tried to convey a message of hope, and to have hope myself.

I have no such delusions regarding the next four years. Joe Biden is going to be a failure as a President and the country is going to suffer for it, possibly irreparably.

28 June, 2012

SCOTUS Rules ObamaCare Mandate is a Tax--Here’s Why

The short version is this: the states never really took the tax argument seriously, and didn’t prepare an adequate defense.

Here’s the longer version.

The tax argument was something of a Hail Mary pass by the government. They believed that ObamaCare is constitutional because of the Welfare clause, the Commerce clause and the Necessary and Proper clause. But they threw the tax argument in as a last resort, basically saying “just in case you don’t agree with us on these three, we still have this arrow in our quiver.”

The states defense against the tax argument amounted to “Nuh uh. It’s not called a tax in the law, and they never called it a tax before. They can’t call it a tax now.”

SCOTUS’ response was “Nuh uh isn’t a valid argument. And it doesn’t matter what it’s called. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.”

SCOTUS envisions that the way this will work is that there will be a line on your income tax form that says something like “Provide proof of health care insurance”, and if you don’t, then the next line will be “Otherwise, pay $XXXX”.

While SCOTUS doesn’t say this directly—at least that I’ve seen so far—this is similar to the child care credit. If you provide proof of child care, you get a tax credit for it. Yes, the health care provision works in the opposite direction, in that it’s a penalty, not a credit. But it could have easily been written the other way, to match the child care scenario. Of course the reason it wasn’t is then it would be impossible to argue that it’s not a new tax, which was one of President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) original statements.

The court makes a good point here, and one that it’s really hard to argue against. And maybe the reason the states didn’t prepare a proper defense against this argument isn’t that the didn’t take it seriously, but that there isn’t one.

Still, regardless of what you think of this argument, there’s no doubt that today’s decision is a loss for defenders of personal liberty and freedom in the United States, and a victory for the socialist movement. We must now pin our hopes upon repeal. That won’t be easy, either though. The stamp of approval by SCOTUS will sap quite a bit of the political will for repeal on Capitol Hill. It’s time for the Tea Party to truly show it’s strength, or to quit and admit that the American experiment is a failure.

26 June, 2012

Polling the President—June 2012

It’s that time again. Time for my monthly look at President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) polling figures.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 48.3/47.5. Last month, he was +0.6, today he’s +0.8. That counts as statistical noise, but does include a rather bizarre +9 poll from Bloomberg. Exclude that poll, and it’s a bit of a dip from last month. We’ll see where things stand next month. This is almost exactly where he stood one year ago. But one year ago was the start of a summer swoon for the President. Two years ago the same happened. A third summer of discontent will send the campaign into a panic.

Right Track/Wrong Track contains considerably less good news for the President. Last month the spread was –24.7. Today, the numbers are 31.3/61.5, which is a –30.2 spread. We’re approaching 2:1 on people thinking we’re headed the wrong direction. Those are dismal numbers for a President seeking re-election.

Next, I move on to the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. Consumer confidence continues to fall. It dropped from 64.4 in May to 62.0 in June. Again, as I keep saying, the only good news here is that these numbers are better than the mid 40 numbers we were seeing last summer. But we’re headed in that direction again. So far there’s little reason to suspect that the July numbers will be any better than June, but they may not be much worse either. Next Friday’s BLS report may give us the biggest indicator as to where consumer confidence will be headed.

Now, on to General Election numbers. The polling average for former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) vs. President Barack Obama (D-USA) are as follows: Obama 46.8, Romney 44.2. Both numbers are higher than last month, and the spread for Obama has increased from 2.0 to 2.6. This is one area where things have gotten a bit better for Obama. And this is the most important average of the bunch. However, this includes a +13 Bloomberg poll. Excluding the Bloomberg poll yields an average spread of 1.3, down pretty markedly from last month. If Bloomberg releases another poll like this next month that is such a significant outlier, I will exclude it from my numbers. For now, though, it stays in.

In addition, the daily tracking polls are looking bad for the President. Romney has led in Rasmussen’s poll for the last 18 straight days. In Gallup, Romney has only trailed one day out of the last 12. You’d have to be an incredible optimist to think this qualifies as good news for the President.

While I personally think that in the end, things will go Romney’s way, the polling hasn’t shifted in his direction as much as I’d expected. But June definitely shows a shift in Romney’s favor. I have been pointing out for several months that the polling numbers were a mixed bag for the President. That is not true this month. The only one that’s not bad news is the General Election average. And the only reason it’s not bad news is the Bloomberg outlier.

Just last month, I said that based upon current polls, I’d give Obama a slight edge in November. That’s been true for several months. I’m officially shifting that to “toss up” as of now. July may be the turning point in the campaign. Either Romney’s momentum fades, or he capitalizes on it, and starts to look like a favorite. A July fade for either campaign will stack the odds heavily against them.

Starting next month, I’ll include some head-to-head numbers in battleground states. Right now, these are the only bright spots for Obama. But just like everywhere else, the trend is in the wrong direction. I will likely do two updates each in July and August, then go to weekly ones starting in September.

20 June, 2012

Wide Receiver Is Not Fast And Furious

President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) administration and Attorney General Eric Holder’s Department of Justice is deliberately being confusing and obfuscating the truth over the two ATF programs named Wide Receiver and Fast and Furious. Sometimes they pretend they’re the same thing. Sometimes they tell us that when individuals mention one, they in fact mean the other. Sometimes they pretend that Wide Receiver never existed, and there’s only been one program, Fast and Furious, and that it’s been going on for years.

It’s all smoke and mirrors.

Wide Receiver was an ATF program run during the administration of President George W. Bush (R-USA). It was a gunwalking program, with the apparent goals claimed by Fast and Furious. However, there are some key points worth noting about Wide Receiver. The goal was apparently to “catch some big fish” in Mexican drug cartels who were using U.S. manufactured guns in their operations. This program was done with the consent and participation of the Mexican government. It involved a fairly small number of weapons, which were carefully tracked, often even with electronic tracking equipment.

Of course, what happened next will be surprising to no one. Despite the careful tracking, ATF lost some of the guns. When that happened, the program was shut down. You can certainly argue that this was inevitable from the beginning, and the entire program should have never been implemented. I might even agree with you.

Fast and Furious was an ATF program run during the administration of President Barack Obama (D-USA). The claimed goals were the same as Wide Receiver, but there were some significant differences. (And remember, Wide Receiver had already been shut down by this time, due to the inherent and somewhat obvious problems with the program) The differences included, but were not limited to the following. The Mexican government was not involved, and in fact was unaware of the program. The gunwalking was on a much larger scale, and the guns were not tracked (at least as far as we can tell) at all once they left the point of sale.

These differences are significant and are at the heart of the problems with Fast and Furious.

Now, you are probably asking yourself why would someone start a program that’s clearly an expansion of Wide Receiver and without Wide Receiver’s controls, after the failure of Wide Receiver? Or you might be asking yourself, how the people in charge expected it to succeed at the stated goals when the guns were not tracked at all?

Those are the two key questions regarding this program. And, of course, there others, such as, who was in charge of this program, and who approved it? And, if there was a cover-up afterwards, as now appears likely, who ordered the cover-up?

I’m sorry this post is not littered with links as is typical for my posts, but all of the information and much, much more is available in Katie Pavlich’s excellent book, “Fast and Furious: Barack Obama’s Bloodiest Scandal and the Shameless Cover-Up”.

I’m Thrilled That Obama Has Asserted Executive Privilege Over Fast & Furious Documents

Yes, you read that right. For the first time in two years, thinking about Fast & Furious is bringing a smile to my face, rather than raising my blood pressure.

I have said all along that this scandal is bigger than Watergate. And it has infuriated me to no end that it’s been continually brushed under the rug and ignored by the MSM. Attorney General Eric Holder’s stonewalling, lying, and obfuscation over the issue has been making me pull my hair out. As has the long slow slog by Congress to proceed with contempt charges against Mr. Holder.

So, why am I happy today?

President Barack Obama (D-USA) has officially involved himself in this mess now. By asserting executive privilege on the subpoenaed documents, he now owns it. Obama’s ace in the hole this entire time has been that the lapdog media is willing to cover for him. To say that they have not pursued this topic with any diligence is the understatement of the year. NBC Nightly News first mention ever of the scandal was on June 12, 2012! For those keeping score, that’s a mere 545 days after the murder of border patrol agent Brian Terry.

That’s pathetic. It’s beyond pathetic. Its disgusting.

But now, with contempt charges looming against the U.S. Attorney General, and with Obama’s assertion of executive privilege, it will be much harder for the MSM to ignore. We’ve been told for months now that Fast & Furious was a regional program, and that no one at the White House or the upper echelons of the Department of Justice really knew anything about it. That’s been obviously false for some time, but that hasn’t kept Holder from repeating it. But the assertion of executive privilege makes it more difficult for Holder now. If Holder’s been telling the truth, executive privilege wouldn’t be necessary, and in fact, wouldn’t even apply.

This is a big, big problem for Holder and Obama now. And while we still have a lapdog media, there are a few that still try to do their jobs. There are more still that may be biased, but also will smell blood in the water. Another of the many infuriating pieces of this whole story is how Holder and the DoJ have shut down access to the people with firsthand knowledge. You can do that merely by preventing them from appearing before Congressional inquiries, but only if there are no (or few) nosy reporters poking around.

There are going to be more nosy reporters poking around now. And, if there’s anything to find, they’re going to find it. Or they’re going to eventually convince one of these people to talk. And then a second will talk. And then a third. And every time one of these people talks, it’s going to be the lead story of the day. Don’t believe me? Go read “All the President’s Men”. That’s exactly how it went down.

As I keep saying, this is bigger than Watergate. I’m not the only person making that comparison, and after today’s assertion of executive privilege, even more will do so. When people think of executive privilege and scandals, they think of Nixon. That’s not a comparison Obama wants anyone to make.

Again, don’t believe me? Here’s what’s on Drudge right now.

nixon obama

President Obama today just made Fast & Furious a legitimate election issue. It may turn out to be the second biggest issue after the economy. I couldn’t be happier.

06 June, 2012

Walker Survives Recall: What Does It Mean?

I have a slightly different take on the WI Governor race than most of my conservative brethren. Last night, Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) survived his recall election against Mayor Tom Barrett (D-Milwaukee). The margin of victory was about 7 points (53%-46%). This exceeds his victory margin from 2010 (also against Barrett) slightly.

Exit polls showed the race a dead heat, at 50/50. These same polls also gave President Barack Obama (D-USA) a 7-9 point edge over former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) in the race for the White House. Conservatives are saying that the exit polls were about 7 points off, so WI is now a battleground state, and is essentially tied.

Maybe. My guess is likely not, but I won’t say that’s certain. I will say that’s the wrong lesson to be taking from last night’s election.

My guess is that Obama still wins WI in November, by about 3-4 points. Now, that’s certainly close enough that it’s worthwhile for Romney to invest some money there and see if he can gain any traction. But, I think it’s unlikely to be a deciding state. If Romney wins WI, look for him to cruise to victory nationally in November, with probably something approaching 350 electoral votes.

That may happen, but few people are betting that way just yet.

I think looking at WI and wondering whether Romney can win it is taking the small view. I’m looking at the big picture. The last 3 elections have all been “wave” elections, with Republicans winning big in 2010, but Democrats winning big in 2008 and 2006. Even 2004 was a small wave for the GOP, in that President George W. Bush (R-USA) expanded his win over 2000 and got expanded majorities in both chambers of Congress, which is exceptionally rare for a 2nd term.

More importantly, the D/R/I breakdowns of the electorate shifted dramatically between 2004 and 2006, and again between 2008 and 2010. We have a very frustrated and volatile electorate right now, which makes prognostication exceedingly difficult. If you’re a pollster and you’re using a model that projects 37% of the electorate will be D, but it turns out to be only 33%, your whole forecast is going to be wrong.

So, the challenge for all the pollsters, and for anyone else who wants to take a stab at projecting 2012 results, is predicting where that D/R/I breakdown is going to land. So far, no one is predicting that 2012 will be a wave election. But, the question in everyone’s mind is whether it will more closely resemble 2008, or 2010.

Walker exceeded his victory margin from 2010 over the same opponent.

That means, in WI at least, 2012 looks like it may be much closer to 2010 than 2008. Perhaps even better than 2010. Will that translate nationally? That’s the billion dollar question. If the answer is yes, Romney can start thinking about who’s going to be in his Cabinet. Obama can not win in a 2010 environment.

Yes, there are some caveats here. Recall elections are oddballs. Also, it’s very possible that WI may be getting sick of elections, so they may not be quite as enthusiastic in November. And, it’s hard to say whether Romney can generate the same kind of enthusiasm in November anywhere that Walker did in WI yesterday.

In other words, it’s just one data point. Don’t read too much into it. But, if you think they’re not smiling in Romney HQ today and panicked in Obama HQ, then you’re not paying attention.

My personal opinion? Lately this feels like a re-run of the summer of 2010. That makes me very happy.

02 June, 2012

The Candidates and the First Amendment

It’s hard to believe that it’s been almost four years since I last wrote on this. Quite a bit has changed since then, but one thing hasn’t changed. We once again have two candidates running for President from the major parties. So, once again, I’ll be looking at their records from a civil libertarian perspective.

For those that missed this the last time, I examined and compared then Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) based on where they stood on the following issues: First Amendment, Second Amendment, Third Amendment, Fourth Amendment, Fifth Amendment, Sixth Amendment, Seventh Amendment, Eighth Amendment, Eleventh Amendment, Fourteenth Amendment, Fifteenth Amendment, Nineteenth Amendment, Twenty-First Amendment, Twenty-Third Amendment, Twenty-Fourth Amendment, Twenty-Sixth Amendment, Taxes, Abortion, National ID, Voter ID, Card Check, Legalization of Drugs, Gay Rights, Hate Crime Legislation, Growth of Government, Property Rights, Sovereign Rights, Ninth Amendment, and Tenth Amendment. I devoted one post to each of these topics. Some were pretty short, and others were quite long and involved.

Next, I assigned letter grades to each of the two for each item, and at the end produced a weighted final grade. Weightings were necessary, because some of these civil liberties are obviously more important than others. You may be 110% behind gay marriage, but I doubt that even you think that gay marriage is more important then freedom of speech. If you do, you have my sympathies. But I’ll produce a spreadsheet at the end with all my calculations, and you can change the grades and the weightings if you disagree with any of my analysis.

Enough preamble. Let’s get down to it. How do our current Presidential candidates stack up regarding the First Amendment? Like last time, I’ll be looking at information from the First Amendment Center.

Let's quote the First Amendment as a refresher, before we start:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

We’ll start with President Barack Obama (D-USA):

The First Amendment Center is rather kind to Obama, in my opinion.

In its fourth year in office, the Obama administration has a mixed record on issues involving the First Amendment.

[…]

Previously confidential files and rules have since been released for public scrutiny. In 2009, the Justice Department made public the Bush administration 8/1/02 Interrogation Opinion, commonly known as the “torture memos.”

[…]

Still, critics have assailed the administration for not living up to its lofty standards, citing the Justice Department’s refusal to release information concerning domestic wiretapping and surveillance of tourists and U.S. citizens. The department justified the refusal on privacy and national security grounds, according to spokeswoman Tracy Schmaler.

Open-government activists also point to the president’s handling of the Gulf oil spill as an example of unnecessary secrecy. Despite an official government report in 2010 saying the disaster was worse than anticipated, the Obama administration initially presented an overly optimistic portrayal of the cleanup’s success.

[…]

News outlets, including the Associated Press, have criticized the speed with which the administration has met FOIA requests. In 2011, the administration received 544,360 requests but left more than 12,000 of them unmet. Of the cases reviewed, the government denied requests in more than a third of the cases. The administration maintains that it has released more information than past administrations.

[…]

However, relations between the president and religious groups have not always been harmonious. Catholic leaders recently lambasted the administration’s health-insurance mandates requiring religiously affiliated organizations to provide free contraceptive insurance coverage for female employees.

[…]

Though not restrictive of the press, the Obama administration has repeatedly criticized news outlets. The most notable flap occurred in 2009 when White House Communications Director Anita Dunn called the Fox cable network “a wing of the Republican Party.” The president has also sharply criticized news outlets for seeking to gain greater viewership by incorrectly portraying the Washington political scene as combative.

[…]

Reporters have criticized the administration for filing charges against government whistleblowers under the Espionage Act. Invoked six times, the act has drawn criticism for appearing to be a mechanism to hide government misuse of funds.

In 2010, the administration pressed charges against Thomas Drake, a former senior executive at the National Security Agency, for publicly voicing concerns that the government spent an unnecessary amount of money on software when it could have used a cheaper and more effective program.

[…]

In 2010, the president stood as one of the harshest critics of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. In the controversial case, the Court upheld the First Amendment rights of labor unions and corporations to fund campaign ads.

Allow me to sum up. The President has been good about disseminating previously “secret” information to the public, when it has furthered his agenda. He has waged war against the Catholic Church, and news organizations that have been critical of the administration, particularly Fox News. He has not pursued implementation of the Fairness Doctrine, which has surprised me. He does support hate crime legislation, which is in direct opposition to freedom of speech.

Finally, there have been numerous reports this year that the Obama administration is keeping an “enemies list” a la former President Richard Nixon (R-USA).

Try this thought experiment: You decide to donate money to Mitt Romney. You want change in the Oval Office, so you engage in your democratic right to send a check.

Several days later, President Barack Obama, the most powerful man on the planet, singles you out by name. His campaign brands you a Romney donor, shames you for "betting against America," and accuses you of having a "less-than-reputable" record. The message from the man who controls the Justice Department (which can indict you), the SEC (which can fine you), and the IRS (which can audit you), is clear: You made a mistake donating that money.

The WSJ may be engaging in a little bit of fear mongering here, but there’s no doubt that this is worrisome behavior from the White House. Still, it’s not like Obama is exposing secrets. All of the donor information is public record, and there’s nothing keeping Daily Kos or Huffington Post or whoever, from doing exactly what Obama has done. It’s just a little different, and a little scarier, when it comes directly from the head of the government.

That’s Obama. Now, let’s look at former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA):

As Massachusetts governor from 2002 to 2006, Romney proposed legislation that would have exempted religious organizations from having to provide adoption services to same-sex couples.

[…]

In 2005, Romney abandoned plans to exempt Catholic-run hospitals from a state law that requires all hospitals to make the morning-after pill available to “each female rape victim.” Announcing his decision, he said, “I think, in my personal view, it’s the right thing for hospitals to provide information and access to emergency contraception to anyone who is a victim of rape.”

[…]

He did not support a bill to create 35-foot protest-free buffer zones around abortion clinics in his state. Within a year of Romney’s leaving office, his successor, Deval Patrick, signed the legislation.

In the area of campaign finance, Romney vetoed a 2006 bill that would have repealed a ban on printing, publishing or distributing any poster or circular “designed to aid or defeat any candidate for nomination or election to any public office” without identifying individuals who issued or were otherwise responsible for the publication.

Records from Romney’s service as governor became a source of controversy in the 2012 campaign when a Boston Globe article suggested that Romney’s administration tried to purge all e-mail records after his term. According to the report, members of the administration took computers with them and replaced e-mail servers. However, the Associated Press later reported, Massachusetts public-records law doesn’t apply to the governor’s office, so there appears to be nothing illegal in the computer removal. Romney said the messages were deleted because they may have contained confidential information. However, on Dec. 6, 2011, Massachusetts announced that previously closed records from the state’s archives would be made publicly available.

More on his time as head of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City:

At the time, Romney said he supported the designated free-speech zones to promote safety and ease traffic flow. Although the decisions regarding outside protesters fell on city officials, it was later reported that the Olympic committee asked the city to remove two protest zones — which were only large enough to hold 10 people each — located inside the Olympic square. An Olympic committee spokesperson denied that the group made the request.

In addition to the free-speech zones, Romney took a stance on public standards when he set a firm policy on what types of music to play during certain events. For instance, he prohibited music popular among snowboarders from the snowboarding competition because he deemed it too profane.

And as candidate Romney:

In the 2008 and 2012 campaigns, Romney has taken a few stances that directly involve First Amendment principles.

The strongest of these is his position against the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law: He advocates its repeal.

[…]

In 2007, Romney said, “the American people should be free to advocate for their candidates and their positions without burdensome limitations.” Instead, he said he supports reforms “that promote transparency and disclosure, preserve grassroots activism and protect the ability to criticize or endorse current officeholders and candidates.” He calls McCain-Feingold “burdensome” and “riddled with shortcomings.”

[…]

On the 2012 campaign trail, Romney has continued to oppose campaign-finance regulations, supporting the ability of candidates to collect unlimited donations instead of allowing campaigns to be indirectly supported by money from super PACs. “Let campaigns then take responsibility for their own words,” Romney said in the Jan. 16, 2012, debate in South Carolina.

[…]

In remarks in April 2008, Romney described the goals of the Ocean’s Initiatives: “I’d like to see us clean up the water in which our kids are swimming. I’d like to keep pornography from coming up on their computers. I’d like to keep drugs off the streets. I’d like to see less violence and sex on TV and in video games and in movies. And if we get serious about this, we can actually do a great deal to clean up the water in which our kids and our grandkids are swimming.”

[…]

In the 2012 campaign, Romney has continued to speak in favor of religious freedom. After the Supreme Court unanimously ruled against a Michigan teacher’s challenge to her firing from a Lutheran Church-sponsored school in Hosanna-Tabor Evangelical Lutheran Church and School v. EEOC, Romney voiced his support of the decision to the audience at a Faith and Freedom Coalition event in Myrtle Beach, S.C., saying, “We are very fortunate to have people who are willing to stand up for religious tolerance and religious liberty and the First Amendment of this Constitution in this country.”

Romney has expressed concern about the Obama administration’s treatment of religious liberty, criticizing the Department of Health and Human Service’s decision to require schools and hospitals, including those that are run by the Catholic Church and other faith groups, to cover contraception under their employee insurance plans.

I have to be honest here. Some of the information above surprised me. I’ve done this a few times now, and I generally keep tabs on First Amendment issues. So, I tend to know where major politicians stand regarding the First Amendment. Mitt Romney may be the most friendly major politician to the First Amendment that I’ve ever seen.

Yes, he did require Catholic hospitals to offer the morning-after pill, and he enforced free speech zones at the Olympics, as well as banning some music that he considered profane. Of the three, only the first is all that big of a deal. As the person in charge of the Olympics, his responsibility was to make sure that it went smoothly and was enjoyable to the spectators there as well as at home. His responsibility was not to make sure that people would be able to scream obscenities on national TV. Even with the first, he essentially is saying that religious hospitals can not refuse to provide emergency services based upon their faith.

I’m Catholic, and I’m opposed to the morning after pill and abortions. But from a practical standpoint, I understand his logic here. Still, it does impinge on the freedom of religion, and he’ll be docked a bit for it.

Those of you who read this series in 2008 will recall that I was extremely critical of Mr. Obama on this issue, eventually giving him an ‘F’ letter grade. I have since modified my stance, a little. While it’s clear to me that he’s been no friend of the First Amendment, he hasn’t quite turned out to be the enemy that I feared. Still, he did tell his supporters to “get in their faces” regarding Tea Parties and there is that enemies list.

Still, I’m going to raise his grade from last time, but I will be willing to reconsider, should his campaign start attacking free speech again.

Whew. That’s a lot. what about the grades?

Obama: D (subject to further review)

Romney: B (while he’s terrific compared to his peers, it’s hard to get an ‘A’ on this one)

First Amendment: Advantage Romney.

Results so far:

  Obama Romney
First Amendment D B

01 June, 2012

The Battle For the Soul of the Democratic Party

There’s been an interesting little feud among the Democrats this last week or so, and I think it may represent more than just squabbles on how President Barack Obama (D-USA) should run his re-election campaign.

First it was Newark, New Jersey Mayor Cory Booker (D), who went on Meet the Press:

Newark N.J. Mayor Cory Booker (D) expressed reserve about the Obama campaign's Bain strategy against Mitt Romney, telling "Meet The Press" viewers on Sunday that he was "uncomfortable" with the line of attacks.

"This kind of stuff is nauseating to me on both sides," Booker said. "It's nauseating to the American public. Enough is enough. Stop attacking private equity."

Booker was referencing the Obama campaign's Monday release of a series of documentary-esque Bain videos.

Booker later back tracked somewhat, but I’m convinced he meant what he said, and the back track was due to pressure from the White House.

This was followed by former Senator Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN):

Booker is not the only Democrat to question the aggressive, negative portrayal of Romney’s work in private equity.  Former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. said today he agreed with “the substance” of Booker’s comments and “would not have backed out.”

“I agree with him, private equity is not a bad thing. Matter of fact, private equity is a good thing in many, many instances,” the Democrat said in a separate appearance on MSNBC earlier in the day.

Next came Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA):

Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Thursday, Patrick called Bain “a perfectly fine company.”

“They have a role in the private economy, and I’ve got a lot of friends there … on both sides of the aisle,” Patrick added. “I think the Bain strategy has been distorted in some of the public discussions.”

And if that wasn’t bad enough, on the same day we also got former President Bill Clinton (D-USA):

Clinton found himself in similar circumstances. “I think he had a good business career,” he said of Romney, when queried about Bain. He also called Mitt’s record “sterling”, adding “So I don’t think that we ought to get into the position where we say this is bad work. This is good work.”

I think what you’re seeing here is far more significant than questioning Obama’s attacks on Bain Capital, or even just a defense of Bain Capital.

For years now, many of us on the right have been saying that there is a radical wing to the Democratic party, and that this radical wing hates the foundations of America. They are Marxist to their core and want to shred the Constitution and remake the United States according to their Marxist ideal. These people are hungry and angry, and extremely determined. Many of us have also been saying that this radical wing now has control of the Democrat party, and that Barack Obama is the face of their movement.

I think what you’re seeing here is the realization by some in the Democratic party that there’s truth to this statement. Don’t be confused here. Clinton and Booker are lefties through and through. They believe in social justice, abortion on demand, and most of the other things you see as part of the Democratic party platform.

But, they’re not America haters. They love America. They love the free enterprise system, and they’re capitalists at heart, even if they don’t always realize that their goals and intentions fly in the face of free enterprise. Why do you think the Clintons went to New York after they left the White House? They wanted to be where the money is.

They see what Obama has been doing as an attack on free enterprise (which it is), and they’re finally standing up and saying “Enough!” Clinton and Obama have never been the best of friends, and I believe that should Obama lose in November, that this simmering feud is going to boil over. Clinton is going to make a very strong effort to wrest back control of the party and restore it to “his” vision.

You’ll see the results almost immediately if he’s successful. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-08) will lose her leadership position. Blue Dogs will resurface in time for the 2014 elections, and the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee will be very Clintonesque.

On the other hand, if Clinton fails, expect the Democratic party to move even further to the left, regardless of the outcome of the elections in November. Expect them to become even angrier and more shrill. But don’t expect to see a TIME Magazine cover with Pelosi’s picture on the cover and the title “The Politics Of Hate” like you did in 1994 with Newt.

Frankly, as much as I loathe to see these people in power, the latter scenario is probably a better one for America (as long as Obama loses, that is). The more these people expose themselves and their hatred for America’s founding principles, the more it damages the Democratic party. I’m not stupid enough to pull a James Carville and predict a 40 year rule for the GOP, but I do think that a GOP majority is stronger when the differences between them and the left are more striking and visible.

November can’t get here soon enough. Is it really only the first of June?

30 May, 2012

Polling The President-May 2012

It’s that time again. Time for my monthly look at President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) polling figures.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 48.0/47.4. Last month, he was –0.4, today he’s +0.6. That’s barely outside the range of statistical noise, but it is trending the right direction for Obama. And, what I said last month is still true. The good news for the White House is that this number is virtually unchanged over the last several months, and even a bit higher than last August.

I’m a little puzzled as I move on to Right Track/Wrong Track. The four most recent polls end on 5/7, 5/7, 5/20, and 5/20. Not terribly recent. But, that’s the data we have to work with. His numbers here are a dismal 33.8/58.5, which is a –24.7 spread. However, this is a slight uptick from last month, and shows a pretty significant gain over the last year. Still, as I said last month, if I’m a political consultant I’m salivating at the opportunity to run against an incumbent President when less than 34% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction.

Next, I move on to the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. May’s report was released yesterday, and is very disappointing for the President. May’s CCI is down to 64.9, which represents a 3.8 point drop from April. The other numbers in the report don’t get any better. Only 13.6 percent of consumers say business conditions are “good”, and only 16.6 percent expect conditions to improve over the next six months. Again, the only good news in this report is that these mid 60s numbers are a whole lot better than the mid 40s numbers from last summer. However, the continuing bad news out of Europe is going to be a drag on Consumer Confidence for a while, regardless of what happens here.

Finally, as promised, it’s time to look at some head-to-head matchups with former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) in the race for the White House. The current RCP average has Obama at 45.7 and Romney at 43.7. There’s good and bad here for both sides. Obama can take solace in the fact that he’s ahead, and that his string of bad polls seems to have abated. Romney can take solace that almost all of these polls are Registered Voter polls which tend to shift Democratic by a net of about 4 points.

Romney should also be happy that 10% of the public remains undecided. Conventional wisdom says that undecideds that break late go to the challenger. But, there’s some recent data that suggests that conventional wisdom may be wrong (late deciders in 2004 went heavy for President George W. Bush (R-USA)). I think a better way to look at it may be that undecideds are closest to “Independents”. So look at how Obama and Romney are polling among Independents to get an idea of how undecideds may go on election day. In just about every poll I’ve seen, Independents are tilted heavily in favor of Romney. This may be the key data point in this year’s election. If the numbers are close (check), and GOP enthusiasm is higher (check), and Indies prefer Romney (check), it’s hard to see how he can lose.

But, until the polls shift to reflect that, we can only go with what we have.

Overall, this is a mixed bag for the President. However, he can definitely point to improvements over the last year. Despite America’s obvious displeasure with Obama and our economic situation, an incumbent with an improving economy (even if the improvement is spotty and weak, or even imaginary) is hard to defeat. NFL owners rarely fire 7-9 coaches, particularly if they were 5-11 the year before. NFL owners fire 5-11 coaches who made the playoffs the year before. If none of these numbers change, I’d give Obama a slight edge in November. Romney’s going to have to move the needle. It looks like he should be able to do so, but he hasn’t yet, and the clock is ticking.

24 May, 2012

Math Is Hard

The other day, I presented a lengthy, if somewhat boring rebuttal to the awful piece by Rex Nutting on President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) spending.

@politicalmath presented another one of his wonderful infographics on the subject late last night. If you haven’t seen it, it’s been promoted to Hot Air. I suggest you take a look. It makes many of the same points that I made, and a few more, but does it in a manner that’s a bit easier to read.

@JimPethokoukis has another. And another. Oh, and one more. The first one is inflation adjusted, which is excellent. The other two, point out the spending in terms of GDP. That’s good, but I prefer absolute dollars, at least if we’re rebutting Nutting. I think % GDP is misleading in this case, since GDP has shrunk. But, you may disagree. There are still some very valid points in all of his writings and I encourage you to read it. He makes one great point that I thought of myself just today, and I haven’t seen elsewhere.

Don’t the House Republicans get any credit for fiscal restraint the past two years?

Absolutely. Remember that if Obama had his way, spending would be much higher. Speaker Boehner keeps saying no and is to be commended here.

Finally, today @danieljmitchell posted a piece on the subject. I’m a big fan of Mitchell, but I don’t think this is his best effort. It’s much like mine. Long and meandering. But he makes one stellar point that no one else has made. And, it’s the actual point of this post. I’m going to dig a little deeper on this one point.

I think all four of us have pointed out that TARP is a big factor in the FY09 spending increase. And that since it balloons FY09, that makes the increases in FY10, FY11, and so on, smaller.

But wait…it’s worse than that!

TARP not only made FY09 spending larger, but it made FY10 and FY11 spending smaller.

Yes, you read that right. How? Because TARP repayments were counted not as receipts (revenue), but as negative outlays (spending) in the budget.

FY09’s budget was increased by $240 billion dollars due to TARP spending. FY10 was reduced by $95 billion due to TARP repayments, and FY11 was reduced by $65 billion from the same.

In other words, we spent $160 billion more the last two years than the government has been saying we spent.

Remember my graph?

Yeah, that dip in FY10 below 0? It never happened. When you exclude TARP repayments, FY10 spending is $3.552 trillion, a 1% increase over FY09 ($3.518T). FY11 spending is $3.668 trillion, a 3.3% increase over FY11, a 4.2% increase over FY09, and a whopping 23% increase over FY08!

And remember, I’m not doing anything with FY09’s numbers. And we’ve already established that a) FY09 is a poor baseline due to TARP & stimulus, and b) it’s questionable to assign much of FY09 to President George W. Bush (R-USA) in any event. But, even taking that as Obama’s staring point, his spending increases are $160 B more than Nutting is giving him credit for.

23 May, 2012

CBO Says We’re Between a Rock And a Hard Place

Interesting report released yesterday by the CBO. While it still depends heavily upon the static analysis that I’ve criticized so often in the past, it does still show the hard choices we’re going to have to make in the very near future.

In short, the report says that if the Bush tax cuts expire on January 1, then we will have a short recession in 2013. I think they’re optimistic about the length of the recession, especially taking into consideration external factors such as the economic crisis in Europe, but it’s not a pretty picture regardless.

Under those fiscal conditions, which will occur under current law, growth in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in calendar year 2013 will be just 0.5 percent, CBO expects—with the economy projected to contract at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first half of the year and expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second half. Given the pattern of past recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such a contraction in output in the first half of 2013 would probably be judged to be a recession.

However, the CBO says that if the Bush tax cuts are extended, then GDP growth for next year will be around 4.4%. That’s extremely optimistic, considering the current state of the economy and the pace of the “recovery” we’ve had so far. I merely present it as a data point from which to judge the rest of their projections.

Unfortunately, extending the Bush tax cuts is not all sunshine and rainbows, according to the CBO. Since they believe that such an occurrence will limit tax revenue, they see this as a problem down the road. I can’t say it any better than the CBO did, but I will bold some key points:

If all current policies were extended for a prolonged period, federal debt held by the public—currently about 70 percent of GDP, its highest mark since 1950—would continue to rise much faster than GDP.

Such a path for federal debt could not be sustained indefinitely, and policy changes would be required at some point. The more that debt increased before policies were changed, the greater would be the negative consequences—for the nation’s future output and income, for the burden imposed by interest payments on the federal debt, for policymakers’ ability to use tax and spending policies to respond to unexpected challenges, and for the likelihood of a sudden fiscal crisis. And the longer the necessary adjustments in policies were delayed, the more uncertain individuals and businesses would be about future government policies, and the more drastic the ultimate changes in policy would need to be.

The CBO is going to keep hammering this home (and so will I), until someone other than Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI-01) gets it. The economic path President Barack Obama (D-USA) has put us on leads to financial ruin. And we are very far down the path. Every day we delay doing something about it a) makes it harder to solve, and b) makes the required solutions more drastic.

Now, the CBO thinks that we can avoid this financial ruin by raising taxes. But, unless we can raise taxes to 30% of GDP without destroying the economy (we can’t), then the CBO is wrong. We may need to raise taxes. But we absolutely need to lower spending. And, until we commit to doing the latter, there’s no point in even considering the former.

One final point: politicians, regardless of party, who are ignoring this problem or pretending it doesn’t exist are endangering the future of America. These people must be stopped. Quickly. This is what the elections this November are all about. It’s very simple. You can either vote for America, or against it. The time to choose is now.

09 May, 2012

Indiana Primary Postmortem

I’m happy today. Neither of Congressman Dan Burton’s (R-IN-05) nor Senator Dick Lugar’s (R-IN) names will appear on my ballot this November. In addition, after I agonized over whom to support in IN-05, I finally selected Susan Brooks, and she won. She’ll be a good Congresswoman. Jackie Walorski won her primary in IN-02, and I think she will likely win in November as well. People not from IN are going to be amazed by this woman if she makes it to Washington, DC. Watch out.

But enough about that. Let’s think about what happened and what it means. I want you to mull over some facts for a minute. We had no statewide ballot initiatives that would affect primary turnout significantly for either side. President Barack Obama (D-USA) ran unopposed, and I think we’re all finally in agreement that former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) has sown up the Republican nomination. For Governor, both the Democrat and the Republican ran unopposed. There may have been somewhat of an uptick on the GOP side for the the Lugar/Mourdock Senate race. There were about 400,000 votes in GOP Pres primary in 2008, and closer to 600,000 this year. But in 2008, operation CHAOS was in full swing. Former Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) almost won IN, where there were over 1.2 million votes cast in the Dem primary. So, it appears that neither the GOP nor the Democrats should have had any kind of significant “built-in” enthusiasm edge. I’ll give you a slight one for the GOP, but I don’t think it’s huge.

So, comparing apples to apples, then:

Governor race:

Candidate Votes
Mike Pence (R) 530,384
John R Gregg (D) 202,186

Even if you think there was an edge for GOP voters, you’d have to convince yourself it’s close to 3:1 to be able to spin this as good news for Gregg. This is a brutal looking result for the Democrats. Hard to imagine that Pence is not going to be our next Governor.

Presidential Race:

Candidate Votes
Mitt Romney (R) 398,188
Barack Obama (D) 216,128
Ron Paul (R) 95,467
Rick Santorum (R) 82,620
Newt Gingrich (R) 39,769

 

Obama did a tick better than Gregg. Basically, it looks like we can set the bar at around 225,000 for Dem voters (and that’s probably on the high side) in this primary, and about 615,000 for GOP voters.

But, I said earlier there was little to no “built-in” enthusiasm edge. Yes. That means there was no intrinsic reason based on the ballots themselves for either side to have a big advantage over the other.  The 3:1 edge we’re looking at here is the result of an extrinsic enthusiasm gap. It appears to show that GOP voters in IN are much more enthusiastic about this election than Dem voters. This will likely carry over to November. I think we can write off IN as a swing state for the White House. It won’t be blue this time.

Finally, there’s the Senate race. I’m going to spend a bit of time talking about this:

Candidate Votes
Richard E. Mourdock 387,982
Richard G. Lugar 256,108
Joe Donnelly 202,320

 

Donnelly did about as well as Gregg and Obama. And 50,000 votes worse than Lugar, who lost to Mourdock by over 125,000 votes. Again, this is not a good sign for Donnelly.

But the Democrats have a plan.

As I said yesterday, we’re a purple to red state here. We think of ourselves as conservatives, but also centrist. That’s why we had Senators like Dick Lugar (R-IN) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) for many years. The IN Dems will try very hard to paint Mourdock as an extremist and Donnelly as the centrist willing to cross the aisle.

It’s going to be a hard sell. Donnelly is a little bit of a Blue Dog Democrat, only voting with Dems 69% of the time in his term. But, Mourdock will be quick to point out that in every single key vote, Donnelly sided with his Democrat brethren and against Indiana. He voted for ObamaCare. He voted against ObamaCare repeal. He voted against the GOP budget. He voted in favor of the Senate Payroll tax bill. He voted against debt reduction. He voted against defunding NPR. In short, every time he could have voted to save Hoosiers money, he voted the other direction. Frankly, of the two, Mourdock seems more likely to be the one to cross the aisle on a vote where his vote might matter.

Honestly, the IN Dems have to be kicking themselves this morning. There’s no doubt that Lugar’s loss gives them an opening. Centrists are now in play, and we have a lot of them here. But Donnelly is an exceptionally weak candidate. He’s a two-term Congressman, that wasn’t likely to be re-elected (he would’ve been facing a rematch against a better funded and better organized Jackie Walorski). They never really thought that Lugar would be defeated, and Donnelly was the only person they could find willing to run against him.

But, facing what looks like a GOP headwind in November, at least in IN, Donnelly has a big challenge. There’s six months to go, and you never know who’s going to make the key mistake in a campaign, but it’s hard to see Donnelly coming out on top right now.

UPDATE: Earlier version of this post had stated incorrectly that Donnelly was a one-term Congressman. He has served two terms. My mistake.