Tuesday, June 3, 2008

When Will Hillary Drop Out II

Well, this weekend the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee established the number as 2118. Barack Obama (D-IL) will likely reach this number tonight after expected wins in South Dakota and Montana.

So, is my earlier post crazy and wrong?

In a word, "no".

I still maintain that the decision this weekend means little. (Note that I have upgraded it to "little" instead of "nothing"). If the parties in Florida are still interested in pursuing their lawsuits, they will.

I've been told that the same law would not apply in Michigan, but I never doubt the ability of a lawyer to come up with an angle. If there's something there, they will find it.

I've also been told that such lawsuits have no chance of prevailing.

That may be correct, but that also doesn't matter.

The only thing that matters is if the interested parties can drag the legal process out until the convention. At that point, if Obama doesn't have the necessary 2210 delegates, they can inform Dean of how dangerous it would be to nominate a candidate whose legal status is still up in the air. At that point Dean caves. He has no choice but to give in to pretty much everything the Florida and Michigan delegates would demand.

However, there is one way this can all be over in the coming days.

If Hillary Clinton (D-NY) quits.

And we're hearing that she may, in fact, do that or something similar.

Personally, I never thought she would. But, maybe she's decided that Ted Kennedy's days are numbered, and she now has a chance to replace him as the Senate's Giant. I can't say.

There's another theory as to why she may sort of concede today, but I'm leaving that for another post.

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