15 October, 2010

Has The Republican Wave Crested Too Soon?

Possibly. And possibly not.

Certainly there is cause for concern. Recent Senate race polls in AK, PA, NV, CT, WV, WA, and CO offer less reason for optimism among Republicans. The Governor polls have also indicated a little slippage, with CA seen moving away, and FL moving back to a toss-up status.

Other news looks a little better. There is still some good news in the Governor’s races. Wisconsin looks better, and now Hawaii (!?) is seen as a toss-up. Republicans continue to improve on the generic ballots. Presidential approval keeps falling. And the outlook for the GOP in the House has certainly not worsened over the last week, and may have even improved. These items, taken together may mean that Democrats are still being over-counted in the polls. Or, it may not. Smile

The thing is that the GOP had about 3 weeks straight of consistently better news in just about every single Senate race. That just doesn’t happen. Now we’re starting to see some variance. We’ll likely see more in the closing days and weeks. The outlook still looks extremely good for the GOP in the House, and while GOP hopes of taking the Senate may have dimmed just a bit, it’s still well within reach.

The flood is still coming. The only question is how high the wave will be. 18 days.

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