11 October, 2010

On a Non-Political Note

Congratulations to Auburn, LSU, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU which all became bowl eligible this week. They are the first teams to become bowl eligible this season.

Coincident with their bowl eligibility, my computer generally likes all of them: Auburn #13, LSU #2, Michigan State #16, Ohio State #8, Oregon #9, and TCU #4.

Computer top 5:

  1. Boise State
  2. LSU
  3. Oklahoma
  4. TCU
  5. Missouri

The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.

In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:

  1. Oklahoma
  2. LSU
  3. Boise State
  4. TCU
  5. Missouri

MLE (maximum likelihood estimates):

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. TCU
  4. Nebraska
  5. Boise State

My experience is that MLE starts to look “reasonable” about a week or so before Win and Composite. So, if you’re screaming at me because BSU and LSU are #1 and #2, look at MLE and wait until next week.

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