25 April, 2011

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball For 2012

For those who don’t know who Larry Sabato is, he is the election forecaster that the pundits and political advisors turn to for analysis of the battlegrounds. Based on his words, the RNC and DNC will shift their monies, and CBS, NBC, et al. will shift their travel plans.

Here’s his first map for for the Presidency in 2012. There is good news and bad news for the GOP.

The bad news for the GOP is that counting leaners, the Dems lead 247 to 180. That means the GOP will have to be nearly perfect in the tossup states to take the Presidency.

The good news is that election outcomes aren’t always about offense, they’re also about defense. Consider the leaner states as places where the parties will have to play defense. The GOP only has one state, MO. The Dems have four, NM, MI, PA, and WI. That affects allocation of funds. The GOP will be able to concentrate a bit more on offense than the Dems. Not much, though. If this map doesn’t improve, it’s hard to see a Republican in the White House in 2013.

This blog will continue to watch Sabato as well as a couple others and will be updating more frequently as the date of doom approaches.

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