16 September, 2011

Primarying Obama

It ain’t gonna happen.

On the off chance it does, it has zero chance of success. And the people who might consider it, know this, which is why…it ain’t gonna happen.

The reason for primarying President Barack Obama (D-USA) is because you fear that he’s lost the independents and he’s certain to lose next November. But, to have a significantly better chance of winning, the Democrats will have to produce a candidate that can appeal to these same moderates and independents. That means, s/he will have to move to the right of Obama.

But no candidate to the right of Obama is going to win a Democratic national primary. How would s/he campaign? I don’t think the slogan of “ignore my political stances, I’m still a Democrat and I can win!” will likely be a successful one. But that’s the only possible approach.

A Democrat can’t hit Obama on his policies, because he’s done exactly what they’ve wanted. And where he hasn’t, it’s because he’s adopted the policies of the right. Policy speaking, the only place a Democrat can hit Obama is from the left, and a candidate to the left of Obama has no prayer in November, 2012.

Finally, there’s the race factor.

The Congressional Black Caucus will go absolutely bonkers if he’s primaried. And will go even more bonkers if it looks like Obama could lose the primary. This will be carried down to the CBC’s constituents as well, who will be extremely upset with this candidate no matter who s/he may be. No Democrat can win the White House without overwhelming black support, and beating Obama in a primary is not the way to achieve that.

All of these items are obvious to anyone who might consider taking on the President, and they’re obvious to their backers.

It ain’t gonna happen.

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