Primarying Obama

It ain’t gonna happen.

On the off chance it does, it has zero chance of success. And the people who might consider it, know this, which is why…it ain’t gonna happen.

The reason for primarying President Barack Obama (D-USA) is because you fear that he’s lost the independents and he’s certain to lose next November. But, to have a significantly better chance of winning, the Democrats will have to produce a candidate that can appeal to these same moderates and independents. That means, s/he will have to move to the right of Obama.

But no candidate to the right of Obama is going to win a Democratic national primary. How would s/he campaign? I don’t think the slogan of “ignore my political stances, I’m still a Democrat and I can win!” will likely be a successful one. But that’s the only possible approach.

A Democrat can’t hit Obama on his policies, because he’s done exactly what they’ve wanted. And where he hasn’t, it’s because he’s adopted the policies of the right. Policy speaking, the only place a Democrat can hit Obama is from the left, and a candidate to the left of Obama has no prayer in November, 2012.

Finally, there’s the race factor.

The Congressional Black Caucus will go absolutely bonkers if he’s primaried. And will go even more bonkers if it looks like Obama could lose the primary. This will be carried down to the CBC’s constituents as well, who will be extremely upset with this candidate no matter who s/he may be. No Democrat can win the White House without overwhelming black support, and beating Obama in a primary is not the way to achieve that.

All of these items are obvious to anyone who might consider taking on the President, and they’re obvious to their backers.

It ain’t gonna happen.

September 16, 1620

The Mayflower sets sail from Plymouth, England. It carries 102 passenger intent on establishing a colony in America.  Many of these passengers, were seeking religious freedom, having been oppressed by the English Church and government.

You can find a list of the passengers here.

Constitution Day (Observed)

Tomorrow, September 17th, is the anniversary of the signing of the United States Constitution. Since it falls on a weekend, the official observance of the day is today, Friday, September 16th.

It’s a good day to read it, or at least the Bill of Rights. Surprisingly for such a long lasting document, it’s fairly short. It won’t take you that long.

There’s a website for celebrating Constitution Day here. There are plenty of free and cheap apps for reading the Constitution on iPad, iPhone, & Android (and I assume Windows Phone 7 or whatever it’s called).

Read it. Learn it. Know the facts. So few actually do.

And yes, I’ll probably post something similar to this tomorrow, in commemoration of the actual day of the signing.

Teetering

That’s my word of the day on Twitter.

You’ve heard me use it before, as in, “the U.S. is teetering on the brink of another recession”.

Three more indicators today that show that is where we are.

Number one: today’s job report. Have a look at what Ed Morrissey at HotAir has to say about it.

Initial jobless claims jumped last week to 428,000, one of the highest levels since the beginning of the third quarter.  The Department of Labor also revised last week’s figure upward to 417,000 as the four-week average jumped 4,000 to almost 420K[.]

[…]

Last week’s initial figure was 414K, up two thousand from the previous week’s 412K, which was initially 409K before it got upwardly revised as well.  Are you seeing a pattern?  Six weeks ago, the level was at 400K even, and a week prior to that it had been below 400K.

The first part of Q3 had looked like the economy might have stabilized a little bit, and Q3 was looking like it might be a bit better than Q2.  We were seeing less inventory and slightly better jobs numbers. Whatever momentum there was appears to have disappeared, however. Based on the latest reports, Q3 is looking very much like a mirror image of Q2. No better. Maybe a bit worse, depending on how the next few reports look.

And now let’s talk about number two.

Jim Pethokoukis tweeted today that the IMF said that the EU financial crisis would knock at least another 0.7% off of U.S. GDP. I can’t find that in anything on their site, but that’s no doubt due to my search capability. I trust JP to get it right.

So, where does that put us? Well, if you recall, the latest estimate from the BLS on Q2 GDP was 1.0. If we take that number for Q3/Q4 as a starting point and subtract 0.7, we’re left with 0.3.

In other words, teetering.

And I still think that Q2 is going to be revised downwards yet again. So, even if the EU salvages this situation somehow, the U.S. will still be…yes…teetering on the brink of a recession.

But I’m not finished yet.

Today we also learned that Goldman Sachs has changed their forecast for crude oil. They now predict $130 a barrel within a year.

Crude oil is currently around $90 a barrel. In September, 2010, it was about $75 a barrel.

If it hits $130 by this time next year, that will be an increase of roughly 70% over 24 months. We discovered before that there’s a weak correlation between energy prices and recessions. Energy prices (of which crude oil is only one factor) tend to rise by between 60-100% sometime before the recession starts, and then start to fall off. This tends to be an indicator about half the time.

Now, I admit that the correlation here is not as strong as a numbers junkie like me would like. If it was the only indicator, I might point it out to you and say that it bears watching, but don’t be nervous…yet. However, it’s not the only indicator, and as such bears mentioning, with the appropriate caveat.

Anyway, 70% would be squarely in the 60-100% range. But we’re not there yet. We just appear to be headed there.

In other words: teetering.

Make me give a number, and I say ~60% chance we’re in a recession by next November. Maybe slightly higher, but let’s see this month’s revision to Q2 GDP before we start getting worried.

But that’s if nothing significant and bad happens. We’re so close to the edge, that really, anything at this point would push us over, such as an implosion in Europe, oil disruptions in the Middle East, another big hurricane, maybe even a sufficiently large political scandal. It’s not going to take much to get consumers to put their wallets away, and for investors to lock up their safes. When that happens, things will go from moderately bad to downright awful, and fast.

Teetering.

September 15, 1935

Nazi Germany settles on a single national flag.

They had been using two. This is the other one.

It’s amazing how these timely events work out together. I was just talking about these colors the other day in reference to this website. Don’t you think they’d fit in very well?

September 14, 1994

The day I gave up on Major League Baseball.

The World Series is canceled by Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig due to the ongoing strike. The strike will end on April 2, 1995, and even the 1995 season will be shortened from 162 to 144 games.

As far as I’m concerned baseball died on this day. Roger Maris’ 61 home runs record in a season will never be broken, nor will Hank Aaron’s career record of 755 home runs.

I try to stick to the facts in these “On This Day” posts, but it’s 17 years later, and I’m still very bitter about this one. I’ve never watched a baseball game since, nor do I plan to start.

GOP Debates: Round 5-Florida

Yes, I know. I missed round 4. Actually, I didn’t. I just haven’t blogged on it.

As always, the videos are at the end.

I’m going to approach things a bit differently this time.

First I want to congratulate CNN and Wolf Blitzer. This was by far the best designed and moderated debate so far. I was worried at the beginning with their opening montage and introductions, but once they got to the meat, it was enjoyable to experience. My only significant gripe is that I don’t think former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) and Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) should be next to each other. CNN put them there and quite often went to a camera shot that had both of them on screen while one was talking. Made it often look like they were the only two there.

For the first hour I was generally happy and amazed. Every single candidate, even former Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT) and Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX-14) impressed me at some point. For the first time I really felt that we have a great group of candidates here. Some people had problems with former Romney going after Perry on Social Security, but I didn’t. As I keep saying, the frontrunner(s) will remain the frontrunner(s) unless you go after him (them). Romney made some good points, too, although I think in the end he lost on the exchange, because Perry was prepared with a great one-liner about Romney’s book.

Perry seems to be following the President Reagan (R-USA) playbook. He has lots of good zingers and one liners. I don’t think he has quite the delivery of Reagan, but he’s not bad. But he needs to be better on substance. When he gets away from his strong suits, and from his one liners, he stumbles a bit. This will come in time. I’m sure he’s been in a few debates as Governor of Texas, but he’s not faced the caliber of candidates or the level of intensity of the scrutiny that he’s facing now.

Unfortunately, the second hour we returned to earth. Huntsman and Paul lost me completely. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I really don’t want to see Ron Paul at any more debates. He makes the entire GOP look bad. Also, Perry and Romney hit some issues that weren’t their bread & butter ones and they also stumbled.

But Romney and Perry were the two frontrunners going in, and they’re still the two frontrunners. No one made any significant movement in their direction. I’m not sure if they really changed much amongst themselves either. I think they both made some good points, and both occasionally struggled. I’m hearing on my Twitter feed that Romney looked awful, and that he had the best performance, which leads me to believe that I’m right, that nothing really changed between them last night.

Now to the rankings. I’m going to start at the bottom and work up this time.

Ron Paul: Titanic level disaster. Vote him off the island. Now.

Jon Huntsman: He’s just way too far to the left. He has some good ideas about some things, but he’s a traditional politician. A twentieth century one. You’ve heard me rip on twentieth century politics before.

These two were so far below everyone else that they deserve special mention. Everyone else did at least a passable job, just not spectacular.

Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): I’m going to say he’s next. I’ve mentioned every single time that Santorum is either great or awful during debates. It’s because he’s combative and thin skinned. I think he’s been working hard on fighting his tendencies here, and I give him credit for that. Unfortunately, that means that he’s coming across much more subdued. He had a passable performance, but completely non-memorable.

Herman Cain (R-GP): Cain has been steadily improving at the debates. He’s obviously been putting in quite a bit of work. If he’d been as good in the first debate as he’s been in the last two, he may have made some noise. Perhaps he still will. I was very impressed with Cain last night. The only reason he’s down so low on the list is that others have raised their games as well.

Rick Perry: I really don’t have much of a problem with the Gardasil issue. He admits it was wrongly handled, which puts him miles above Romney who still thinks RomneyCare is a good idea. However, I also don’t have any problems with anyone attacking him on it, as long as they stick to facts. He’s absolutely perfect on Social Security, but he’s definitely left himself open for attack here and we’re going to see more scenes like what we saw last night with him and Romney. However, I’ve said before that he’s weak on illegal immigration, and it’s true. He’s very weak here and his answers on this issue were not reassuring. At all. I had him first earlier in the night, but he dropped to fourth in the second hour. And illegal immigration is a big part of why.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA-06): Frankly, Newt should be first or second, and it’s not his fault he’s not. While CNN overall did a good job last night, they still had a problem with letting candidates disappear for large parts of the night. That’s got to be hard to avoid with so many people up on stage. It certainly happened to Newt. He disappeared for long periods. But when he was on screen, I liked what he was saying and I liked his delivery. Probably one of the most impressive nights he’s ever had, when he was visible, and I’m on record as saying he’s the candidate I would least want to debate.

Mitt Romney: There’s really not much difference between any of the top 4. I put Romney above Newt because he didn’t disappear and above Perry because I thought he was a bit less uneven in his performance. His highs weren’t as high as either Perry or Newt, but his lows weren’t as low either. However his attempted attack on Perry and the Texas economy fell completely flat. He knows he needs to attack Perry on something, and fiscal issues are his best bet, but he’s going to have to come up with a better plan than “Four Aces”. Probably Romney’s worst moment in any of the debates so far.

And the Oscar goes to…

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN-06): She’s up here because she treated last night like a marathon. Unlike others who went for some quick hits early and then fell flat, she stayed in focus the whole evening. She’s obviously found an attack point on Perry that she likes in Gardasil. While I don’t agree with her position on it, she shows quite a bit of passion and is believable. And there are a lot of people out there who share her viewpoint. But she was good to very good in every single answer she gave last night, if I recall correctly, and unlike the rest, actually improved as the night went on. Her one fault is that she’s very talking point oriented, and sometimes goes to the talking point instead of actually answering the question. I’ve noticed this every single debate. That’s not altogether surprising. Most politicians do this. It’s surprising that in this field she’s the only one who does it consistently. Having said all of that, this was the Michele Bachmann we saw earlier this year, who has all but disappeared since then. I’d love to see more performances like this. She still almost certainly won’t get my vote, but last night performance is what I’ve always hoped to see from her.

 

It’s 12:06 PM September 11, 2001-Where Are You?

12:06 PM

US airspace is clear of aircraft except for military and emergency flights. Only a few transoceanic flights are still landing in Canada.

September 11, 2001.

Where were you?

2,996 souls were lost on that day, including 343 of New York's Bravest and New York's Finest who gave their lives trying to save others.

Oh, where was I during all of this? In a meeting. No one bothered to interrupt the meeting to mention what was happening. After the meeting, I walked out to my car, somehow managing not to talk to a single person. I got in the car and drove home for lunch, without turning on the radio. I got home, made myself a sandwich, sat down at about 12:05 PM, turned on the TV and discovered that the world had changed while I wasn't looking. Rudy Giuliani has said it best, many times (paraphrasing). "We learned on September 11, 2001 that we were at war. The other side had known they were at war for quite some time, but we didn't know it."

There's a very poignant picture on the NY Times website from 9/11/2006, with the caption "The Hole in the City's Heart"

Where were you?

And here’s the 9/11 World Trade Center Memorial, as it appears today, 9/11/2011:

On September 12, we all promised ourselves that we'd never forget the events of that day. Have you kept that promise?

The times and events listed here are a very small excerpt of what's available at the Cooperative Research History Commons. If you’ve seen my other posts over the last couple months about 9/11 related events, they came from there as well. The whole thing is well worth a read, if you have the time (it's extremely long). I’ve left out quite a bit, including many of the actions at the White House, Pentagon, NORAD, etc. There were many heroic decisions and actions made that day. And some less than heroic ones. Right guesses and wrong guesses; it’s all there at the link above. There’s quite a bit about Delta Flight 1989, which I didn’t cover, although I’m still unsure if that was a good idea. Delta Flight 1989? There was nothing wrong with it, but circumstances led the people on the ground to believe that it was the fifth hijacked plane. The timeline also seems to have been taken over by some 9/11 “truthers” in the last few years, so there’s more stuff to wade through than there used to be.

I’ve expanded this quite a bit this year, partially because it’s the tenth anniversary, but also because too many of us seem to have forgotten what happened that day, and what it felt like to live through it and the following days. I forget myself sometimes, but the yearly exercise of doing this brings it all rushing back. Producing this is an emotionally draining exercise to say the least.

As I indicated earlier, Russia was conducting a military exercise in the North Atlantic and shut it down. Putin called Bush and told him that he knew that the U.S. was raising their military alert status and in response, Russia’s military would stand down, in order to make sure nothing bad happened in a moment of high tension. Putin also told Bush that the world must unite against terrorism and that Russia would stand by the United States.

 

"Freedom and Fear are at War." - U.S. President George W. Bush

"This is a battle with only one outcome: our victory, not theirs." - UK Prime Minister Tony Blair

Where were you?

It’s 11:00 AM September 11, 2001-Where Are You?

11:00 AM

Most skyscrapers and tourist attractions in the U.S. are evacuated and closed. The list includes Walt Disney World, Seattle’s Space Needle, Independence Hall, and many others.

There are still nearly 1000 airborne flights in U.S. airspace, and every one of them is a potential weapon.

It’s 10:39 AM September 11, 2001-Where Are You?

10:39 AM

The FAA shuts down all U.S. airports.