BREAKING: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky warns that she feels “impending doom” with the Covid case trajectory. “Right now I’m scared.” pic.twitter.com/MSJDQWRifA
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) March 29, 2021
“Impending doom” seems excessive. “Scared” might be reasonable. Let’s take a look at the numbers. These are all 7-day rolling average:
Worldwide | United States | Indiana | |
Cases - Current | 589.598 | 60,122 | 1,037 |
Cases – Recent Min | 358,964 Feb. 21 | 47,418 Mar. 14 | 745 Mar. 4 |
Cases – Recent Peak | 761,164 Jan. 22 | 227,593 Jan. 8 | 5,379 Jan. 10 |
These are all pretty significant increases. Walensky is also correct that often when things start going up, we get an explosion. There is plenty of reason here to be concerned, possibly even frightened.
However, the numbers for fatalities are generally more promising:
Worldwide | United States | Indiana | |
Deaths - Current | 10,357 | 733* | 9 |
Deaths – Recent Min | 8,409 Mar. 16 | 733 Apr. 6 | 7 Apr. 5 |
Deaths – Recent Max | 16,255 Jan. 24 | 3,061 Feb. 5 | 88 Jan. 2 |
*Ended with April 6 data. April 7 had 2500 fatalities, which is almost certainly a correction. And it is skewing the current results.
Worlwide fatalities are up, by a decent margin. However, in the U.S. and locally here in Indiana, we’re basically at our recent lows.
I’ve been fooled by the numbers before. I am very concerned by the rising case counts, and confused by them as well. With rising vaccination rates, and the huge numbers of people who have already had the disease, case counts shouldn’t be rising. As long as vaccinations keep going up and fatalities stay down, I’m not scared yet.
There are reasons to be hopeful this is just a short-lived bubble. But history is against that, sadly.
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