Why I Can’t Take Paul Krugman Seriously

I’ve gotten into a little hot water recently for comments I’ve left on a couple blogs suggesting that noted economist Nobel Laureate Dr. Paul Krugman isn’t the smartest man in the universe.

Let me be more blunt. I don’t think he can count past ten without taking off his shoes.

Krugman is a fanatic regarding Keynesian economics. When I have time, I plan to do a whole series on just how dumb Keynesian economics is, but when I do, I want to document my case thoroughly, and I’m only about halfway through my research. It’s coming, though.

Anyway, in a recent article for the New York Times, he wrote (emphasis mine):

Here’s the narrative you hear everywhere: President Obama has presided over a huge expansion of government, but unemployment has remained high. And this proves that government spending can’t create jobs.

Here’s what you need to know: The whole story is a myth. There never was a big expansion of government spending. In fact, that has been the key problem with economic policy in the Obama years: we never had the kind of fiscal expansion that might have created the millions of jobs we need.

Krugman keeps saying that Obama’s biggest problem is that he hasn’t spent nearly enough. This is the crux of Keynesian economics. There’s no hole so big that you can’t spend your way out of it. Of course, this is a ludicrous proposition when the economic crisis is caused by too much debt, and the “solution” is to acquire more debt, but logic has never been a strong suit of Keynesians.

He says this later in the article:

So as I said, the big government expansion everyone talks about never happened. This fact, however, raises two questions. First, we know that Congress enacted a stimulus bill in early 2009; why didn’t that translate into a big rise in government spending? Second, if the expansion never happened, why does everyone think it did?

Answers. 1) It did. 2) They’re smarter than you are.

As rebuttal I offer the following graph:

Well, as I said. I don’t believe that math is Dr. Krugman’s strong suit.

Let me lay it out in numbers. They’re big ones, so I don’t expect Dr. Krugman to understand, but hopefully you will.

Federal spending went from 20.7% of GDP in 2008 to 25.4% this year. 25.4% is the highest percentage since WWII. But it ain’t just percentages of GDP I’m talking about. We can look at raw numbers.

2008 federal spending was $2.983 trillion. A hefty sum, to say the least. 2010 spending? $3.720 trillion. For those keeping score at home, that’s nearly a 25% increase in federal spending. In two years.

Allow me to be blunt once more. If you don’t think that a 25% increase in spending over two years is a “big government expansion”, then you’re just as dumb as he is.

And if you quote Krugman in an effort to make a point, I will continue to ridicule you.

For more info, go here.

AP Can See The Wave Coming

And it’s big.

All signs point to huge Republican victories in two weeks, with the GOP now leading Democrats on virtually every measure in an Associated Press-GfK poll of people likely to vote in the first major elections of Barack Obama's presidency.

But the devil is in the details. And they’re not just bad for Democrats, but horrible.

In another worrisome sign for Democrats, women now split pretty evenly between the two parties, 49 percent favoring Democrats, 45 percent Republicans. In 2006, Democrats took over Capitol Hill in part by winning 55 percent of the female vote to 43 percent for Republicans.

[…]

52 percent have a favorable impression of the GOP; 44 percent view the Democratic Party positively.

I can’t remember the last time the GOP got a 52 favorable rating from an AP poll. Not even in the post 9/11 aftermath was it that high.

Democrats have struggled to find a winning message in such tough economic times. This could explain why: Just a third of likely voters think the massive economic stimulus package — designed by Obama and his Democrats — has improved the economy.

They're just as down on other parts of the president's agenda as well, with a majority of likely voters opposing his remake of the country's health care system. They are divided over whether to change the law to expand it or repeal it entirely.

There is just no good news for the Dems at all in this poll. Every single line is bad, and it generally gets worse as you go on.

However, a small word of caution, and it goes along with what I wrote last week about the GOP possibly peaking too soon.

The more I study the pollsters, and the cross tabs, and notice the real variance between the pollsters on the details, the more I begin to think the following is true.

I have decided that the pollsters…all of the pollsters…don’t have any clue what’s going to happen on November 2. None of them have ever experienced an election like this. And what’s worse, the last election was also extremely unusual, in completely the opposite direction. So, they’re throwing darts at a dartboard when it comes to projecting likely voter turnout, and party affiliation.

Add to that the fact that off year elections are notoriously difficult to project, almost as bad as primaries, and I don’t think anyone truly knows where we are.

I’m not even 100% certain we’ll take the House. On the other hand I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 70 seat GOP gain. Or more.

For the Senate, it’s not much better. Somewhere between 5 and 12 seats. You pick the number you like, and you’re just as likely to be correct as Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Gallup, Zogby, etc.

So, cross your fingers and do whatever you can personally do to get your candidates over the finish line.

Then, when you get home from work on November 2, break out the popcorn, prop your feet up and turn on FNC. It’s gonna be a late night.

13 days until the flood. Where’s Charlton Heston when you need him? Oh yeah. Too bad. He would have enjoyed this, I think.

Party Like It’s 1773

Ok, there’s a zillion blog posts out there about this already, so one more is hardly needed.

But this blog has been unabashed in its support for Sarah Palin for two years, and this is the funniest thing I’ve read all year. Too bad I already did “Libs Say The Darndest Things” because this would work well in it.

So, what am I talking about?

Sarah Palin kicked off the nationwide Tea Party Express tour on Monday and during her speech, she told the audience of Tea Partiers:

Don’t party like it’s 1773 yet.

She was telling them that the fight’s not over until true conservatives control Washington.

Well, the liberal twittersphere went ballistic over her “gaffe”. Follow the link for several of the tweets, but I’ll show a couple:

For those that don’t know Markos above is the founder of the Netroots organization and the biggest lefty site, DailyKos. And Gwen Ifill is the PBS newsperson who “moderated” the VP debate in 2008.

So, yeah, this is clearly a gaffe. What could she have been thinking?

Maybe she was thinking that she was talking to Tea Partiers and that the Boston Tea Party was in 1773? Whaddya think? Maybe?

Sorry Kos et al. As the cool kids say, you’ve just been pwned.

What’s the line?

Oh yes. Libs, you could benefit from this one.

It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. –Unknown

I’m sorry, but I just can not stop laughing.  Follow some of the other links.

Perfunction

Memeorandum

Michelle Malkin

Ace of Spades

HotAir

I’m sure Rush, Sean, and Glenn will all have something to say about this tomorrow as well.

I’m still laughing.

HELL NO!

Wow, Rush is on a tear today, and the object of his attack is the GOP leadership. He believes that they will cave to MSM pressure and “work to find compromises” with the President. He points out that Democratic controlled Congresses are never faulted for their inability to find compromise with Republican Presidents, but we knew that already.

Rush is right to be angry about this possibility. And the MSM has already started it’s push for it.

Allow me to quote myself for a moment:

We’re watching you.

We’ll elect you if we think you’re right for us, but if you don’t represent us, we’ll replace you. And we don’t care how long you’ve been around. In fact, how long you’ve been around may actually be a detriment to you. And a lot of us don’t care what letter you have after your name. We just want you to represent US, and not yourself. We don’t want your corrupt, politics-as-usual power grabs. We don’t want any hint of you thinking that you’re better than we are. And if we think that’s what we’re getting, we will send you packing so fast it will make your head swim.

GOP, we’re still watching. And we’ll be watching you closer than ever.

Compromise is not an option. You can not compromise with people who want to destroy the country. This is what you did for most of the term of President George W. Bush (R-USA). You decided that it was ok to just destroy the country slower. In the process you nearly destroyed the Republican party.

If you want to finish off what you started, and accomplish the MSM’s 40 year goal of destroying the GOP, please go ahead and compromise. Because I guarantee you that if you do, come 2012, I’ll be shopping for a new party. And I won’t be the only one.

As Sarah Palin has said, we’re saying not just no, but hell no!

And we expect nothing less from you. It’s very simple, be the party of “Hell no!” or we’ll replace you with someone who will.

Molly Norris & Freedom Of Speech

Regular followers of this blog know that the First Amendment is a big deal to me. There was a huge First Amendment story in the United States earlier this year, and I didn’t comment on it at the time. I’m rectifying that now.

This story is about a woman named Molly Norris. I assume you’ve heard of her, but if you get all your news from NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN and the New York Times, then you haven’t. Sadly, she doesn’t even have a page in Wikipedia. On the other hand, maybe that’s appropriate.

Molly Norris is a political cartoonist. You know, one of those folks that draws George W. Bush and makes him look like Alfred E. Neuman, or makes Barack Obama’s ears look like Dumbo’s. Anyway, earlier this year, she drew what she thought would be a humorous political cartoon. It was called “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day”.

This was a response to what many people claimed was censorship of a South Park episode depicting Mohammed. As you know, the Muslim faith forbids creation of any likeness of the Prophet. The South Park episode was altered after completion to have Mohammed’s face blurred and several sections were “bleeped” out.

So, Molly was trying to a) have some fun, b) respond satirically to this perceived censorship, and c) poke some fun at Muslims. This type of thing is expected behavior for a political satirist.

According to her, the entire point of the cartoon was satire. She says that she never really meant for May 20, 2010 to be “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day”. It was a joke. She points out that in the cartoon all the images claim to be the likeness of Mohammed, but they’re quite clearly not. She found herself and the cartoon to be at the center of a media and grass roots political firestorm. She even tried to stop the movement and stop the event from occurring.

Then, of course, came the death threats. This is what happens when you mock the peaceful religion of Islam. As others have discovered previously.

On July 11, 2010 it was reported that Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki had put Molly Norris on a hitlist. In an English-language Al Qaeda magazine named "Inspire," Al-Awlaki wrote "The medicine prescribed by the Messenger of Allah is the execution of those involved." and was quoted as saying "The large number of participants makes it easier for us because there are more targets to choose from in addition to the difficulty of the government offering all of them special protection [...] But even then our campaign should not be limited to only those who are active participants." FBI officials have reportedly notified Norris warning her they consider it a "very serious threat."

Okay, so that was back in May. What has Molly been up to since?

No one knows. You see, there is no more Molly.

The gifted artist is alive and well, thankfully. But on the insistence of top security specialists at the FBI, she is, as they put it, "going ghost": moving, changing her name, and essentially wiping away her identity. She will no longer be publishing cartoons in our paper or in City Arts magazine, where she has been a regular contributor. She is, in effect, being put into a witness-protection program—except, as she notes, without the government picking up the tab. It's all because of the appalling fatwa issued against her this summer, following her infamous "Everybody Draw Mohammed Day" cartoon.

This woman has been sent into hiding by our federal government, and the feds aren’t even picking up the tab. If you use your favorite search engine and look up “obama ‘molly norris’” you’ll find that President Barack Obama (D-USA) has had nothing to say on the issue.

He has time to criticize Republicans for “sipping Slurpees” and time to attack the Chamber of Commerce but no time to defend Molly Norris or to defend her free speech.

This is appalling and disgusting. In fact, it may be the most reprehensible thing yet from this administration. And you have to leap pretty high to clear that bar.

If Molly Norris’ right to free speech has been lost, then we have all lost it. If our President won’t stand up against radical Islam to protect an innocent U.S. citizen, then the war on terror is lost. Every time we acquiesce to the demands of radical Islam it emboldens them. Every time we cower in fear over their potential response to an action, we lose.

Mr. President, you have failed your country. You have failed the entire world.

I hope the GOP makes the next two years of your life a living Hell.

14 days. I can see November from my house.

Lies And The Lying Liars Who Tell Them

The Democrats have been running blatantly false ads about the FairTax.

Of course this is nothing new. The most common attack on the FairTax is to twist it into something it isn’t and then complain about the problems it creates.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) is just one of several Democratic candidates saying the FairTax -- a levy that replaces the federal income tax with a 23 percent sales tax on everything, including the purchase of a new home or car – is backed by Republicans and will bust family budgets if enacted into law.

Research supplied by FairTax.org shows that Democrats in 16 districts have run at least 31 ads blasting Republicans for supporting the tax. But many of these ads neglect to mention the levy is essentially a national sales tax that would replace the current federal tax system.

It’s even worse than that. Not only does it replace your income tax, it replaces all of the current federal tax system, including corporate taxes. The price of your goods isn’t going to go up by 23%, because you’re already paying that tax!

Also, the FairTax only applies to new goods and services. Don’t want to pay the FairTax on a car? Buy a used one.

The tax is extremely popular with the Tea Party movement, according to a recent poll by the Tea Party Patriots. The tax received an extremely high rating, beating out other tax proposals, like the flat tax, as well non-tax issues like the balanced budget amendment and term limits.
However, Jim Nunns, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, said factors like noncompliance and including government purchases in the tax could make it hard to implement the levy.
“If we wanted to get all of our revenue from a consumption-type tax, administratively, it’s probably much better to form a VAT [Value-Added Tax] or some variant of a VAT rather than a retail sales tax,” he told The Hill.

According to several sources, talks are under way on Capitol Hill to create a consumption tax, perhaps a VAT, that would be added to the current tax system to help the country get out of debt. There has been no serious discussion on implementing the FairTax, these sources said.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

You often hear about noncompliance as the biggest issue of the FairTax. This from people who are at least trying to attack the actual FairTax, and not some trumped up other thing.

Who will collect the FairTax and pay it to the government? Business owners. There’s about 100,000 of those in the United States. Who pays income taxes? Anyone who receives income in the U.S. That’s about 100,000,000 people. Now which do you think is likelier to have trouble with non-compliance? This is a dumb criticism.

As for all the problems with a VAT, I detailed them extensively here. The short version is this. A VAT that replaces an income tax can barely be classified as reform. A VAT in addition to an income tax is completely the opposite of reform. It would make our tax situation an order of magnitude worse.

Libs Say The Darndest Things

 

About the deficit:

The deficit was $122 billion less than last year's $1.42 trillion, a modest improvement.

Yes, but last year’s $1.42 trillion dollar deficit was primarily the result of TARP and the stimulus. What’s the excuse this year? Shouldn’t it have been less than $1 trillion? Next year is projected to be over $1 trillion again. Somehow this is Bush’s fault even though his highest deficit was around $400 billion.

About the elections (President Barack Obama (D-USA):

They're fighting back. The empire is striking back. To win this election, they are plowing tens of millions of dollars into front groups. They are running misleading negative ads all across the country.

Sorry, champ. Last I looked you were the head of the authoritarian, controlling, free speech fighting top down government.

You’re the Empire.

The Tea Party is the Rebellion.

We’re coming for you, Palpatine.

About the non-existent economic recovery:

(sorry, I have to paraphrase on this one. I heard it on the radio this morning. It was an excerpt from FNC’s “Bulls & Bears” show this weekend. The show’s resident liberal was asked about “shovel ready projects” and Obama’s admission that there aren’t any)

Well, the truth of the matter is that in America, for projects like this, we have an awful lot of bureaucracy and red tape to deal with. It’s taken longer to get these projects started.

Someone tell this lady that she’s trying to defend a President who has done nothing since entering office except increase the amount of bureaucracy and red tape. When I heard this one I literally busted out laughing in the car. But she wasn’t done yet.

When reminded that she still hadn’t responded to the question of why there aren’t “shovel ready projects” when Obama has been telling us for two years that there are:

Well, I’m just glad that we have a President who is willing to tell us the truth about these things.

LOL! Did you hurt your neck from that spin? He’s been lying for two years. The only thing he has told the truth about is admitting that he’s been lying.

I’ll look for links or audio of this broadcast. It really was one of the funniest things I’ve heard in quite some time.

In 15 days, these folks are going to be amazed at how big the flood is going to be.

College Football Week 8

Congratulations to Florida State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Utah, Alabama and Boise State which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 14. There are 35 bowls this season, so we’ll need 70 bowl eligible teams.

Condolences to Akron which joins USC (probation) on the bowl ineligibility list. Akron is the first team to make the list based upon win loss record.

Ratings?

Computer top 5:

1. Oklahoma
2. Missouri
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Oregon

The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.

In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:

1. Oklahoma
2. Missouri
3. LSU
4. TCU
5. Boise State

MLE (maximum likelihood estimates):

1. Oregon
2. TCU
3. Missouri
4. Stanford
5. Boise State

As I said would happen, Win and Composite look better this week. You’ll notice that there’s still quite a bit of turnover in the top 5, however. Expect that to continue for at least a couple more weeks.

Oklahoma travels to Missouri this weekend in what the computer thinks is the most important game of the season.

Enjoy!

Liberal Media: Predicting The Death Of The GOP Since 1972

If you pay attention to our wonderful mainstream media, you’ll notice that no election ever is the cause for celebration for the GOP.

1972 brought us the Watergate break in, and 1974 the resignation of President Richard M. Nixon (R-USA).

So, of course this meant in 1976 that the GOP was doomed. The MSM of the time was quite emphatic on that point. You probably remember the 1976 election as a landslide for the Democrats. If so, your memory, like that of the MSM, is faulty.

In fact, despite the Watergate scandal hanging over the heads of the Republicans, President Jimmy Carter (D-USA) was elected with only 297 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Carter had essentially no coat tails, as the Democrats did not gain a single seat in the Senate, and only gained one seat in the House.

Still, the MSM assured us all that the GOP should not celebrate this election and would soon fade away into nothingness. So, in 1978, the GOP gained 3 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. In point of fact, these were fairly small gains for the minority party in an off year election. But they were still gains.

In 1980, Democrats were certain to retain control of the White House, or at least the MSM told us that through the summer. It wasn’t until the fall that people began to whisper that President Ronald Reagan (R-USA) might win. And he did. In a landslide, making big gains in the House, and taking control of the Senate.

The MSM had been predicting the death of the GOP since 1974, and this obviously didn’t fit the narrative. It was therefore time for a new narrative. Reagan’s hardline stance against the Soviet Union was a danger to us all, and the GOP would take the fall, if the country itself managed to survive.

Of course, the country thrived, and Reagan had an even larger landslide in 1984.

This took the heart out of the MSM for a while and they briefly stopped predicting the death of the GOP. At least until 1992, when President Bill Clinton (D-USA) was elected and the Democrats also once again controlled the House and the Senate.

Oddly enough, no one mentioned that since the Democrats now controlled both the Executive and the Legislative branch of the Government, that they were going to have to prove to America that they deserved such an honor and their governing principals were correct. More on that later.

What the MSM did tell us was that the GOP was a dying party. Bill Clinton represented the voice of a new generation, and the GOP was only for wealthy old white men. In other words, this election represented doomsday for the GOP.

You may have heard of the “Republican revolution” of 1994, where the GOP took both houses of Congress for the first time since 1952. Surely the MSM would tell us all that was a cause for celebration for the GOP? No. In fact, we were told that the GOP was the “party of hate” (Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) appeared on the cover of Time Magazine with the caption “The Politics of Hate”), and would quickly alienate the voters who had put them in power.

Despite that, the GOP held both chambers through 2000. The 2000 Presidential election was marked by the infamous miscalls and recounts in Florida. In the end, President George W. Bush (R-USA) was elected, and the GOP briefly controlled both the Legislative and Executive branches of the government. Surely, this would be good news for the GOP, right?

Wrong.

The MSM famously told us that the GOP would have to prove to America that they deserved such an honor and their governing principals were correct and would work. Notice the difference between 2000 and 1992. More on that later.

Because of the fiasco in Florida, the MSM went over the edge. They predicted the death of the GOP pretty much continuously from 2000 to 2008. Despite that, the GOP actually picked up seats in both the House and the Senate in 2002, a rarity for off year elections.

The 2000’s brought us hurricane Katrina, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, two recessions, “high” unemployment of 5%, and eventually the economic meltdown of September 2008.

Finally, the MSM’s 30 years of predictions of the death of the GOP were proving correct. Democrats made big gains in the House and Senate in 2006 and retook both houses. These were followed by even bigger gains in 2008 and the election of President Barack Obama (D-USA).

Based on how the MSM treated the election in 2000, you might think that they would inform us that such an election, and holding both the Legislative and Executive branches might foretell problems for the Democrats.

Nope. Not at all. Instead, the MSM gleefully told us in late 2008 and early 2009 that the GOP was not merely dying, but in fact, already dead. They told us it was a “regional” party. They told us to expect 40 more years of Democrat rule.

Today, we are 16 days out from what appears to be an historic election. The Republicans appear to be headed to control of the House again, in perhaps a bigger wave than 1994. GOP control of the Senate is not out of the question. This despite the fact that the GOP was dead a mere 18 months ago.

Why is this happening? The Tea Party folks. They are energized and angry and are wresting control of the GOP from the establishment. It’s becoming a party of youth and energy (and women!), not a party of rich old white guys.

So, how is this being reported by the MSM? You guessed it. This will cause the death of the GOP. The Tea Parties will divide the GOP and cause a GOP civil war, sending the party to its eventual doom.

See, as I said in the very first sentence of this incredibly long post, no election results are ever good for the GOP. If they fail to take the House or the Senate, it will be because the Tea Party over-reached. If they do take the House and Senate, it will mean that the GOP will have to govern responsibly, work with Obama, and avoid a civil war. The MSM will delight in telling us that will be a Herculean task, and that the GOP can’t possibly do it.

Make them eat their words. The flood comes in 16 days.

I Missed the 17 Day Mark

Was busy yesterday.

So, for your enjoyment, read this. I got this in e-mail, and I seriously doubt that it’s true, however it’s still a nice little parable.

An economics professor at Texas Tech said he had never failed a single
student before but had, once, failed an entire class. That class had insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer. The professor then said ok, we will have an experiment in this class on
socialism. All grades would be averaged and everyone would receive the
same grade so no one would fail and no one would receive an A.

After the first test the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy. But, as the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too; so they
studied little…

The second test average was a D! No one was happy. When the 3rd test rolled around the average was an F. The scores never increased as bickering, blame, name calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit
of anyone else. All failed, to their great surprise, and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great; but when government takes all the reward away; no one will try or want to succeed. Could not be any simpler than that....

 

Snopes says this is apocryphal. Still, as I said before, it is a nice little parable and shows what we’re up against in this election.

17 days from yesterday until the flood.