17 April, 2021

I Often Disagree With Nate Silver on Process and His Conclusions, but the Dude Knows Math

Wow, Donald Trump and Nate Silver Agree On Something... and It's Huge – PJ Media

It is huge. What is it? It’s that we should not stop giving out the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The numbers don’t support such a move.

Explanation here:

“Say there’s a 1 in 100 chance someone acquires COVID because of a delayed vaccine (maybe conservative in the US where spread is still quite high) and a 1 in 150 chance they die from it. That’s a 1 in 15,000 chance vs. 1 blood clot death in 7,000,000 doses so far,” Silver explained.

“We also have to consider that the person who gets COVID because of a delayed vaccine will pass her case along to an average of 1 other person…. So the death rate is actually twice as high as I indicated above,” he added.

In other words, a pause for the J&J vaccine is almost certainly going to do more harm than good.

That’s just stupid, as Silver makes clear:

“It’s going to create more vaccine hesitancy,” Silver tweeted. “These people don’t understand cost-benefit analysis. They keep making mistakes by orders of magnitude.”

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