20 December, 2021

Prediction: She Will Lose the Primary and Run as an Independent

Liz Cheney bruised, trails Trump pick by 18 points | Washington Examiner

She will attempt to duplicate the efforts of Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT).

Not sure if it will work for her, but I didn’t think it would work for either of them either. Assuming she pulls it off, who will she caucus with?

The new survey of Republican voters found that Hageman, a GOP activist and Cheyenne land and water rights attorney, leads Cheney, 38%-18%. State Representative Anthony Bouchard is at 12% and 26% are undecided.

The independent survey -- not done for Cheney or Hageman -- was included in a handful of other state results showing that a Trump endorsement can be a game changer. State officials this week announced that Trump plans to hold a rally next spring in Wyoming for Hageman far ahead of the August 16 primary.

What if found is that a Trump endorsement matters, a vote to impeach him hurts and the GOP base still likes Trump.

Zachary Moyle of Las Vegas-based SoCo Strategies said, “The results demonstrate that regardless of geographic campaign, current sentiment is the same. An endorsement from President Trump is almost paramount. Voters support President Trump by overwhelming margins, and anti-Trump candidates are not faring well.”

He added, “This polling shows that one thing is clear, Trump’s endorsement equals a victory in just about any Republican primary.” Trump beat President Joe Biden in Wyoming in 2020 by some 70 points.

I’m sure that she has a plan. I’m curious to see what it is. Trump making enemies of both the Bush family and the Cheney family is striking though. It definitely shows that the GOP base is quite different than it was in 2004.

Sadly, too many of the current GOP politicians want to change the base, not change themselves. You can’t elect a new crop of voters. But the voters can and will happily elect a new crop of politicians.

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